Euro 2024

Euro 2024 play-offs betting tips, free bets and betting offers - Thursday 21 March


Tonight sees six crucial European Championship play-off ties taking place, with all 12 teams desperately trying to make it through to Tuesday’s finals.

Here are our betting tips for this week’s Euro 2024 play-off semi-finals.

Want to know how the Euro play-offs work? Click here!

You can also find our previews and betting tips for tonight’s international friendlies and more right here!

Euro 2024 play-off Betting Tips - Thursday 21 March

Euro play-offs Acca of the Day

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Wales to qualify

Wales vs Finland


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Poland to win and both teams to score NO

Poland vs Estonia


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Both teams to score

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Ukraine


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Both teams to score

Israel vs Iceland


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Greece to win

Greece vs Kazakhstan


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Georgia to win

Georgia vs Luxembourg


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At 18/1, a £10 bet would return £190

Euro 2024 play-offs acca of the week

Path A

Wales vs Finland betting tips

We start with this Path A clash in Cardiff, between two teams who featured at Euro 2020, but only one can keep alive their hopes of appearing at this summer’s edition.

Wales are seeking to qualify for three successive European Championships, having got all the way to the semi-finals, as debutants no less, eight years ago.

Back in 2022, the Dragons then ended their 64-year World Cup exile, overcoming both Austria and Ukraine in those play-offs, and will have to take a similar route, having ended up third in their qualifying group last year.

Rob Page’s team will have home advantage both here and in a potential final which is massive, given that Wales have lost only three of their last 20 competitive fixtures in Cardiff, memorably beating Croatia in October.

So, will Wales move one step closer to more play-off ecstasy?

Finland meantime made their major tournament debut at the most-recent Euros, qualifying at the 33rd attempt.

In this cycle, the Eagle-owls also came third in Group H, just four points adrift the top two, concluding the campaign with back-to-back wins, including hammering Northern Ireland 4-0 at Helsingin Olympiastadion.

However, Markku Kanerva’s team have only won 14 of their last 35 competitive fixtures played away from home, so certainly make this trip 1,245 miles southwest as underdogs.

Back in 2020, Wales won both Nations League meetings with Finland, prevailing 1-0 in Helsinki and then 3-1 at home.

Thus, we foresee the Dragons making home advantage count at, what’ll be, a raucous Cardiff City Stadium.

Poland vs Estonia betting tips

Elsewhere in Path A, another home win seems the most-likely outcome in Warsaw, as Poland seek to qualify for a fifth successive European Championships.

Prior to last year, the Eagles had won 29 of their last 41 European qualifiers, sailing through campaigns and becoming major tournament mainstays.

However, 2023 turned out to be a nightmare year, finishing third in Group E with only three victories out of eight, embarrassingly beaten by Czechia in Prague, Moldova in Chișinău and Albania in Tirana.

Fernando Santos was therefore sacked in September, after only six games in charge, with Michał Probierz, who’s unbeaten four games into his tenure, unable to salvage automatic qualification.

Nevertheless, Poland do now get a second chance in the play-offs, overwhelming favourites to advance to Tuesday’s final.

Estonia meantime have never qualified for a major tournament before, coming closest to Euro 2012 when they were defeated 5-1 on aggregate by Republic of Ireland in the play-offs.

13 years on, the Blueshirts will return to the play-offs, despite finishing bottom of Group F with just a solitary point to their name.

Thomas Häberli’s team are being rewarded for topping their Nations League D group in 2022, yielding maximum points from games against Malta and San Marino, which seems like something of a loophole.

Nevertheless, Estonia have lost all four previous visits to Poland, and it would be an enormous surprise if the streak was not extended at Stadion Narodowy.

Path B

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Ukraine betting tips

Over in Path B, Bosnia & Herzegovina are hoping it is fourth time lucky.

The Golden Lilies have been dumped out in the play-offs for the last three European Championships, beaten by Portugal in 2011, Republic of Ireland in 2015 and Northern Ireland on penalties four years ago.

The Dragons are back here again following a dismal campaign in which they won just three games, two of which came over Liechtenstein, embarrassingly smashed 4-1 in Luxembourg City in November.

Luckily, Bosnia did win promotion to Nations League A in 2022, so have earned this play-off berth.

Head Coach Savo Milošević, who’s only had four game in charge so far, played at two World Cups and a Euros, winning the golden boot at the tournament 25 years ago, scoring five times for Yugoslavia.

Now, if he is going to lead Bosnia to their maiden European Championships, they’ll have to overcome their play-off hoodoo.

Opponents Ukraine meantime have featured at each of the last three Euros, reaching the quarter-finals in 2021, a streak they desperate to extend.

However, the Blue and Yellows too have experienced recent play-off heartbreak, missing out a place at Qatar 2022 following a 1-0 defeat to Wales in Cardiff.

Last year, despite not being able to play on home soil, Serhiy Rebrov’s side were impressive in Euro qualifying, holding both England and Italy to draws, but unable to finish above either of the Euro 2020 finalists.

Now though, Ukraine come into this play-off full of confidence, having beaten Bosnia 2-0 when the pair last met in a World Cup qualifier in Zenica in November 2021.

Of all six ties taking place on Thursday night, we think this one at Stadion Bilino polje is most-likely to witness an away win.

Israel vs Iceland betting tips

Happening simultaneously just 234 miles north in Budapest, Israel continue their quest to qualify for a first-ever European Championships.

Since permanently switching to UEFA in 1991, the Skyblue and Whites have unsuccessful attempted to qualify for 14 tournaments, coming closest four years ago, beaten by Scotland on penalties at this stage.

Last year, despite everything that’s going on back home, Alon Hazan’s side managed to finish third in Group I, a mere two points below Switzerland, who claimed the second automatic spot.

Now though, Israel do get a second chance, although they’re still unable to play matches on home soil, hence why this tie is taking place at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in the Hungarian capital.

Iceland meantime made their Euros debut in 2016, also appearing at the 2018 World Cup, and they came so close to making it three in a row, dumped out by Hungary in the Euro 2020 play-off final across the city.

In fact, since their most-recent visit to Budapest, this team has been on a downward trajectory, winning only five of their last 29 competitive fixtures, four of these victories coming over minnows Liechtenstein.

Åge Hareide took over as head coach just under a year ago, but he’s not been able to arrest the slide very much, with September’s 1-0 victory over Bosnia in Reykjavík a rare highlight to date.

Iceland are the lowest-ranked League B team to be awarded a play-off berth, so Hareide will be hoping his players can grasp this second opportunity with both hands.

Concerningly for the Nordic nation, they’ve never beaten Israel in five attempts, albeit both their Nations League encounters in 2022 did result in 2-2 draws.

This clash at Megyeri út is tough to call, but we give the slight-edge to Israel.

Path C

Greece vs Kazakhstan betting tips

Turning our attention to Path C, which features three teams who, should they make it, would be major tournament debutants, as well as a side celebrating 20 years since being crowned European champions.

Famously, back in 2004, Greece caused one of the biggest upsets in the history of sport, winning the Euros, ousting holders France before defeating hosts Portugal in the final.

However, this now feels like a distant memory, given that it’s ten years since Greece’s most-recent major tournament appearance, dumped out of the 2014 World Cup in Recife by Costa Rica on penalties.

Under Gus Poyet, the Sky Blues and Whites are hoping to recapture former glories, finishing third in their qualifying group last year, beating Ireland twice before holding France to a credible 2-2 draw last time out.

Greece therefore come into this play-off tie as favourites to advance, so can they make home advantage count in Nea Filadelfeia?

As for Kazakhstan, whatever happens, it’s already been an historic campaign, but they are just two wins away from a momentous achievement.

Magomed Adiyev’s team ended Euro qualifying with a more than respectable 18 points, beating Northern Ireland twice, Finland in Helsinki and, most-memorably, Denmark at home, fighting back from 2-0 to do so.

Before this, since becoming a UEFA member in 2002, the Hawks had only ever won ten of 94 European qualifiers, so claiming victory in six out of ten last year represents an exponential improvement.

However, Kazakhstan are not particularly strong away from home, claiming victory in just seven of their last 29 competitive fixtures played outside Astana, two of which came in San Marino.

Meantime, Greece have won all three previous meetings with Kazakhstan, albeit the most-recent of those came in 2006, so we’re forecasting a home win at Agia Sophia Stadium.

Georgia vs Luxembourg betting tips

In Thursday’s earlier kick off, both of these two teams know that victory in Tbilisi would leave them on the verge of qualifying for a first-ever major tournament, given that, whoever prevails here, will host Tuesday’s final.

Georgia are desperately hoping to avoid a sense of déjà vu, having come agonisingly close to appearing at Euro 2020, heartbreakingly defeated 1-0 by North Macedonia in a play-off final four years ago.

In last year’s campaign, Willy Sagnol’s side accumulated an underwhelming eight points, both wins coming against Cyprus, but draws with Norway and Scotland underlines the Crusaders’ imperious home record.

In fact, since October 2017, Georgia have lost only three of 16 competitive home games with supporters in attendance, these defeats coming at the hands of Spain twice and Switzerland.

So, with both this semi-final and a potential final taking place in Tbilisi, there is serious belief they can make history.

On the down side, having been booked against both Scotland and Spain in November, talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will sit out this match suspended, a fact that certainly offers hope to the visitors.

As for Luxembourg, they are the world’s most rapidly improving nation, ranked 195th by FIFA in 2006 and 147th as recently as 2017, but are now 85th, following an exponential improvement in recent results.

Last year, the Red Lions won five of their ten Euro qualifiers, ending up on 17 points, surpassing their record points tally by some distance, bettering the ten points earned during Euro ‘96 qualification.

Luc Holtz’s team beat Iceland at home as well as Bosnia both home and away, so will come into these play-offs with genuine belief and optimism.

These two nations have only ever met four times before, most-recently doing so in a friendly in 2018, a match that Luxembourg actually won 1-0 at Stade Josy Barthel.

This time at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, roared on by 55,000 supporters, we’re backing Georgia to sneak through.

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Ben Gray

Ben Gray

Arsenal fan – follow them over land and sea (and Leicester); sofa Celtic supporter; a bit of a football '"encyclopedia".