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2000 Guineas Tips: Three Selections from the Freebets Experts
Our top tipping team cast their expert eye over the first Classic of the 2024 flat season
With the Grand National still fresh in the mind, the Flat season ramps up a notch this weekend with the opening two Classics - the 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas.
The 2000 Guineas is first on the agenda on Saturday afternoon, and with the race shown live on ITV Racing, check out the top 2000 Guineas betting offers to enjoy on the big event.
Our tipping experts, Alan Kelly, Charlie McCann, and Ed Quigley, have their 2000 Guineas free tips below, with all three fancying selections at double-figure odds against the hot favourite City Of Troy.
Alan Kelly - Inisherin (Each-Way) (w/o City Of Troy)
It may well be that Ballydoyle’s City Of Troy turns out to be the superstar that many pundits are predicting. A comprehensive victory in the first Classic of the season would set things up nicely for Epsom, but at around odds of 4/6, I prefer to look at the “without the favourite “market for a better value alternative.
Richard Hannon’s Rosallion is obviously the first place to start, but I’m not convinced the form of his Grand Criterium victory is that strong. Godolphin’s Notable Speech is unbeaten in three starts but has yet to race on turf, a remark that also applies to Karl Burke’s highly regarded dual Southwell scorer Night Raider.
Alyanaabi, Iberian, Ghostwriter and Haatem all have place claims. But Kevin Ryan runners are often underestimated in this race, as was the case with last year’s 125/1 runner-up Hi Royal, and the same may be valid with the stable’s unexposed INISHERIN (without fav) (Each-Way).
Unfancied on his debut in a Newmarket maiden in September, the son of Shamardal belied his 50/1 odds by just losing out to last month’s Blue Riband Trial winner Bellum Justum, the pair clear of a Ballydoyle hotpot in third. Inisherin landed the odds impressively on his only other outing as a juvenile, on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, and is fancied to outrun his odds in the hands of jockey Tom Eaves. Odds of 20/1 are currently available in the “without” market, with more expected to follow.
Charlie McCann - Iberian (Each-Way)
City Of Troy puts his unbeaten record and massive reputation on the line in the opening classic of the season, and he could turn this into a procession if he is half as good as the noises coming out of Ballydoyle would have us believe.
His wins in the Superlative Stakes and the Dewhurst - quite aptly - marked him down as a potential superstar, but I can watch him win at 4/6 against what I believe is a strong home challenge. Ballydoyle are often mobhanded in the classics, but they rely on just the market leader today, which suggests he is head and shoulders above his stablemates - at least at this mile trip.
Night Raider has looked special, winning both starts on the All-Weather, but he looks more like a sprinter to me, and I think he will fall into a hole inside the final furlong. The Jersey Stakes awaits.
I have been on weather watch all week for Rosallion, who broke the track record when winning the Grade 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc Day. The faster the ground, the better for the Richard Hannon-trained colt, and he is a must for any shortlist.
The unbeaten Ghostwriter was another juvenile I had a lot of time for last year, but the each-way vote goes to IBERIAN (Each-Way), who holds a verdict over Rosallion in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on soft ground, although the winning time suggested it was nearer good to soft.
Trainer Charlie Hills insists we will see a better horse on better ground, and he was readily brushed aside by City Of Troy and Alyanaabi in the Dewhurst. I was hoping one of the major firms would offer four places in the Guineas, but that is not the case. That said, I do think 28/1 is an insult for a Group 2 winning 7f juvenile who should get a mile well enough, although probably no further.
Ed Quigley - Task Force (Each-Way)
The 2000 Guineas comes to town, and the race understandably revolves around champion two-year-old City Of Troy, who looked an absolute monster in three starts last season, winning all three in devastating fashion, including the Superlative Stakes in stunning fashion, and then made light work of his rivals to land the Dewhurst.
If he has more to offer as a three-year-old, then he will take some stopping, but at such a short price, there isn’t a great deal to be gained by finding out if he has trained-on.
The well-flaunted statistics of his sire Justify make for fascinating discourse, as his progeny’s strike rate drops off noticeably from around 30% to around 12% for the Classic generation.
On raw talent, he will probably win, but with the added factor that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have his string firing on all cylinders at present, he is worth taking on, at least from an each-way perspective at cramped odds.
The joker in the pack could be the Ralph Beckett-trained TASK FORCE. He has been exclusively campaigned over 6f to date, winning his first two starts, and then was last seen when staying on strongly to finish runner-up behind Vandeek in the Middle Park Stakes.
The visual perspective of that run was that further will suit, and his pedigree more than backs that up.
On paper, he looks like a proper miler, and trainer Ralph Beckett is enthusiastic over how well he has been working at home over the winter period. He rates an each-way player with Rossa Ryan in the saddle.
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