Australian Open Tennis Betting Tips: Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
Will Jackson
Can Aryna Sabalenka unlock the plan of Madison Keys as she chase a three-peat in Melbourne? Graham Hardcastle has the latest tennis betting tips ahead of the final of the Australian Open on Saturday.
Check out our tennis betting tips for the Australian Open plus the top tennis betting offers from the best betting sites.
- Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
- Australian Open, Women’s Singles final
- Saturday January 25, 2025, 8.30am UK
- Melbourne Park, Melbourne
Australian Open Final : Tennis Betting Tips
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Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a bit of history Down Under. She is one win away from a third successive Australian Open and, if successful, would become the first woman to achieve that feat since Martina Hingis between 1997 and 1999.
Standing in her way is American outsider Madison Keys, who has reached her second grand slam final and her first since the 2017 US Open, which she lost in straight sets to compatriot Sloane Stephens.
There’s no doubt Keys is dangerous, as she proved in her semi-final win against world number two Iga Swiatek, who she overpowered having gone a set down.
Aggressive Keys won the second set 6-1 and then triumphed in a 10-point tiebreaker, coming from behind in that as well.
But Belarusian Sabalenka - our pre-tournament title tip, which we got at 5/2 - is playing to a different level at the moment.
She breezed her semi-final against her best mate Paula Badosa 2-0 on Thursday, and I just can’t see her losing this one.
Instead of taking Sabalenka to win the match outright, at 3/10, I would be taking her at 10/11 to win by 2-0 sets score. That’s available via SportingIndex and provides some value.
Sabalenka has won three of their five previous meetings, dating back to August 2018, in straight sets, including 6-4, 6-3 most recently on hard court in Beijing at the start of last October.
And, since the start of this season in Brisbane, where she won the title, she has won 11 matches and has dropped only two sets in that time. Keys has also won her last 11 matches, winning a title in Adelaide, but has dropped seven sets in that time.
Keys to win the Ace battle but lose the war
There has only been one match in the tournament which has seen Aryna Sabalenka serve more Aces than her opponent, whereas Madison Keys has found consistent success in that regard.
With that in mind, a 5/4 bet365 bet builder on Sabalenka to win the match but for Keys to serve the most Aces is enticing.
William Hill are offering 9/4 on there to be at least one tiebreak in the match, which is worth considering. When Sabalenka beat Keys 2-1 at the 2023 US Open, they played two in that match.
In this tournament, Sabalenka has played one tiebreak, whereas Keys has played two.
I have a feeling for Sabalenka to win the first set 6-4 correct score, so there’s two bets to finish this Australian Open tennis tips preview which reflect that.
The first is a #YourOdds 4/1 shot with betfair, which is for Sabalenka to win 2-0 and each set either 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6.
The final one is 19/4 with PricedUp on Sabalenka to win the opening set of this contest 6-4 correct score.
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