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Ben Gray: Is all three newly-promoted clubs being relegated from the Premier League a worrying trend for the future?
Over the weekend, it was all but confirmed that the three newly-promoted clubs will all be relegated straight back to the EFL Championship.
Sheffield United have been down for weeks, while Burnley’s return to the second-tier was secured following their defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Simultaneously, just six miles down the road, Luton were beaten 3-1 by West Ham, leaving them three points adrift safety, requiring a 12 goal swing on the final day to survive, which isn’t going to happen.
This’ll be only the second time in Premier League history, after 1997/98, that all three newly-promoted clubs have gone straight back down, but could this be a trend that becomes more common in the coming years?
Between them, the three clubs have earned a miserly 66 points (all with one game to go), the fewest a trio of promoted clubs have ever earned.
In fact, since the Premier League become a 20-team division in 95/96, only twice before have the promoted teams not broken the 100-point barrier.
Sunderland, Birmingham and Derby collected just 85 points in 07/08, while Norwich, Watford and Brentford earned a combined 91 points two seasons ago, emphasising how poorly this year’s triumvirate have performed.
On the flip side, just 12 months ago, all three promoted clubs were celebrating survival, with Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest beating the drop, only the fourth time that had happened in the Premier League era, after 2001/02, 2011/12 and 2017/18.
That fact would suggest this season was more of a one-off, so let’s explore which is more likely going forward.
The fact the triad of promoted sides have gone straight back down has come as little surprise to anyone, with most forecasting tough campaigns for at least two of them certainly.
Sheffield United owner Prince Abdullah bin Mosaad Al Saud has been attempting to sell the club for years now, leading to a less than healthy environment at board and executive level.
On the cusp of the season, the Blades sold their two best players, namely Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge, and have appeared ill-equipped to compete throughout, earning just a solitary point from their first ten matches.
Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Goodison means, with one game to go, Sheffield United have now conceded 101 goals this season, the most by any side in a Premier League season, breaking Swindon Town’s record set in 93/94.
Meanwhile, they are the first top-tier team to concede 100+ goals in a 38-game season since Leicester City, who shipped 102 in 1908/09.
Darwen FC hold the all-time goals conceded record in a top-flight campaign, letting in 112 goals in 1891/92, so Chris Wilder’s team will do well to reach that figure at home to Tottenham on Sunday!
Sheffield United have won only three matches all season, barely surpassing Derby’s all-time lowest points record, conceding 3+ goals in a game on 17 occasions, so perhaps we shouldn’t draw sweeping conclusion about the state of the EFL based on this, put succinctly, massively out of their depth team.
Burnley have been, by far, the most disappointing of the trio, coming into the division with sky-high expectations, having won the Championship title with 101 points, a tally only four clubs have ever bettered.
Unlike their counterparts, Burnley spent big in the summer, splashing over £100 million on new arrivals.
James Trafford (£19 million), Zeki Amdouni (£16 million), Aaron Ramsey (£14 million), Jordan Beyer (£13 million), Sander Berge (£12 million), Hannes Delcroix (£3 million), Luca Koleosho (£2.6 million), Michael Obafemi (£3.5 million), Dara O’Shea (£7 million), Wilson Odobert (£12 million) as well as the acquisition of five loan signings was certainly a statement of intent.
Well, without wanting to be too harsh, none of those players have had any discernible impact on the Premier League, not in a good way at least, meaning you really have to question Vincent Kompany and whoever else is involved in recruitment.
Of the Clarets’ five wins this season, only two, Fulham (A) and Brentford (H), have come against sides who were already in the top-flight last season.
It took until 2 December for Burnley to earn a single point at Turf Moor, losing their first seven home matches, becoming only the second club to any of England’s top four divisions to do this, after Newport County in 1970/71, a year the Welsh club finished third-bottom of the Fourth Division.
Of the trio, the Clarets appear best placed to return to the Premier League in the near future, due mostly to their ownership situation, but Kompany’s reputation has taken a battering, so it’ll be fascinating to see how this squad gets on back at a lower level.
Has any team in any division ever been written off more before a ball has been kicked than Luton Town this season?
32 years after most-recently featuring in the top-flight, less than a decade on from being Conference Premier champions, the Hatters were back in first division, but no one gave them a prayer of competing.
On the contrary, Rob Edwards’ side have been, by far, the most impressive of the newly-promoted clubs even if, objectively, their points tally of 26 is pitiful by usual standards.
Since hammering Brighton on 30 January, Luton have accumulated a miserly six points from 45 available, claiming just one victory, losing seven on the spin away from home.
The club have been very open about the fact they weren’t going to go crazy in the transfer market, choosing to use the Premier League money on their new stadium project as well as renovating the training ground.
Nevertheless, with both Everton and Nottingham Forest having been hit by points deductions, you can’t help but feel this is a massive missed opportunity for Luton.
Even if Forest win at Turf Moor on the final day, the Hatters would only have required 34 points to survive, a tally that would not have been enough to keep anyone up in any season since West Brom’s great escape of 2004/05.
On the pitch, Luton have let themselves down defensively, shipping 81 goals, with ever-present Thomas Kaminski keeping just two clean sheets, despite making 143 saves, the most of any goalkeeper.
At the other end of the field, Albert Sambi Lokonga’s opener at West Ham means Edwards’ side have become only the fourth Premier League debutants to score 50+ goals.
The others, incase you were wondering, are: Newcastle (1993/94, 82 goals- finished 3rd), Reading (2006/07, 52 goals- finished 8th) and Blackpool (2010/11, 55 goals- finished 19th).
Even so, the days of the ‘magic 40 points’ being needed to stay up are long gone, with this one of the many indicators of the growing inequality between the top clubs and the rest.
So, the big question remains, will we see more and more newly-promoted clubs struggle to be competitive?
Well, regardless of what happens between now and the start of next season, in just 94 days time, Ipswich Town will be odds-on favourites to finish bottom.
The Tractor Boys, against all odds, have achieved back-to-back promotions, just the fifth club in the Premier League era to go straight from League One into the top-flight.
The others are Watford (relegated in 2000), Manchester City (relegated in 2001), Norwich City (12th in 2012), and Southampton (14th in 2013), so a real mixed bag in terms of historical precedents.
Given that the Blues had been rooted in the third-tier for four seasons, their strategy was to spend big, by League One standards, and bring in Championship-ready players, including Leif Davis (£1 million), Massimo Luongo (free), Nathan Broadhead (£1.5 million) and Harry Clarke (£1 million).
The loan signings of Omari Hutchinson (Chelsea), Jeremy Sarmiento (Brighton) and Kieffer Moore (Bournemouth) have also been pivotal this year, so utilising the loan market will be key again.
Of course, manager Kieran McKenna is the star, holding onto him in the long-run may prove the toughest challenge, but it’ll be a huge ask for some of these players to make the jump up to Premier League level.
Leicester City, we should probably mention them considering they are the champions of the Championship, on paper must be well-equipped to do well next season.
The Foxes’ relegation 12 months ago is still a massive shock, coming just seven seasons after winning the league, but also considering they’d finished fifth twice, won the FA Cup and reached a European semi-final, all in the three campaigns immediately prior.
Now led by Enzo Maresca, their squad features many familiar faces, none more so than Jamie Vardy.
However, Leicester appear set to be handed an immediate points deduction upon their return for breaching P&S Rules; that’s one way to put a dampener on things isn’t it‽
So, star midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who’s been with the club since the age of eight, will reportedly have to be sold, given that any transfer fee would be counted as ‘pure profit’, yes this is the world we live in.
One of West Bromwich Albion, Southampton, Leeds United or Norwich City will complete this season’s promoted trio, with the semi-final second legs to come this week, before the final itself at Wembley on 26 May.
Simply as a result of the financial chasm that exists between the top two divisions, whoever does come up will almost certainly struggle next season, which is not a healthy place for English football to find itself.
How does this ever change? Well, the way football is going at the moment, this issue is only likely to exacerbate over the coming decade.
