Thursday May 2nd is going to be a big day in the world of British politics. We’ve got local council elections that look set to wipe out many Tory councillors, adding more pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and we’ve also got mayoral elections taking place.
It’s the latter of those two where the focus is from bookmakers, so here are the latest mayoral election betting odds ahead of voting tomorrow.
*All odds correct as of 10:30am Wednesday, May 1
London Mayoral Election Odds
Sadiq Khan is bidding to continue his run as the mayor of London, and is long odds on with the bookmakers to do so. Priced up at 1/25 with William Hill, it seems inevitable that Khan will be elected for another term.
Tory Susan Hall is seen as the only credible challenger according to the bookmakers, priced up at 16/1 with Paddy Power to take over the running of the capital city.
Everyone else is priced at 150/1 or bigger, they include Zoe Garbett (Green Party) and Rob Blackie (Lib Dems).
From a betting point of view, this one isn’t too interesting, but Khan returning to office would likely be one of the bigger news stories of these elections.
York and North Yorkshire Mayoral Election Odds
In terms of putting down the biggest marker on Thursday, this is one that Keir Starmer could put right on the doorstep of Rishi Sunak.
An MP in Richmond, North Yorkshire, that area could be on the verge of crowning a Labour mayor on Thursday, something I’m sure Starmer will use to his advantage against Sunak in the General Election build up that will follow this round of voting.
It isn’t a foregone conclusion by any means though. Labour’s David Skaith is narrowly ahead in the polls, and narrowly favourite with the bookmakers, priced at 5/6 with Coral.
Keane Duncan represents Sunak and the Conservatives and at 6/5 with William Hill to win the mayoral election, so there’s not much in it, but Labour do feel they have the edge here.
Tees Valley Mayoral Election Odds
If you ask Team Sunak, Ben Houchen being relected in the Tees Valley will signal a huge positive for them, and hope ahead of the impending General Election. But the story goes far more deeper than that, success for Houchen is not really a positive for Sunak, despite being in the same party.
There are some mayoral elections that have a strong local pull on them, and Tees Valley certainly ticks that box. Many people in the area are forever in debt to Houchen for saving the local airport.
Then there’s the Tees Valley Freeport scandal against Houchen, which throws something from a totally different angle on the table, and will buoy the Labour party here.
It looks a two horse race here with Houchen at 2/7 with Betfred and Labour’s Chris McEwan at 5/2 with William Hill. The Tories are likely to edge this one, but don’t read anything into this on a national level, this is a fierce local battleground that doesn’t care too much about the bigger picture.
North East Mayoral Election Odds
Elsewhere up in the North East, and it looks to be Labour that will win the North East mayoral election, with Kim McGuinness a shortening favourite at 1/3 with Coral.
She has competition from an independent candidate in Jamie Driscoll, priced at 5/2 with Betfred, who has an interesting story behind him to say the least.
He’s the current mayor of the area, winning the last election as a Labour candidate, and being on the very left of the party. But in June 2023, he was barred from the selection process by Labour, eventually he left the party and announced he will stand as an independent this time around.
Leaving Labour has hurt his chance here, but despite that, Driscoll has enough local support and empathy to make this relatively close.
West Midlands Mayoral Election Odds
In the heart of the country, the West Midlands, we have another contest that is deemed too close to call based on recent polling.
Richard Parker is the Labour challenger here, and priced up at 4/6 with William Hill to take over the mayoral position.
Andy Street is the current mayor and Conservative trying to defend, he’s narrowly behind in the polls, and also narrowly behind in the betting market, priced up at 5/4 with Betfred.
Rishi Sunak will be hoping to avoid too many of these going to Labour, to save being under real pressure over the weekend.
East Midlands Mayoral Election Odds
Over on the other side of the Midlands, it’s a clearer picture, with one person ahead in the polls and a big favourite with the bookmakers.
Labour candidate Claire Ward is 1/7 with William Hill to take on the new position.
Conservative Ben Bradley is her only realistic challenger according to the betting odds, he is priced up at 4/1 with Betfred.
A win for Ward, combined with a win for Richard Parker, would give Labour control of the entire Midlands area.
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