It’s the PSR-breach derby as the two Premier League clubs who’ve both received points deductions this season meet in Merseyside, both needing to earn those points back on the field, given that both are dangerously close to the relegation zone.
These two teams start the weekend in 16th and 17th respectively, meaning both are in desperate need of a victory that would represent a gigantic step towards survival.
Having had eight points deducted, Everton have just 27 on the board, two more than bottom three dwellers Luton, and will come into this game with confidence rock-bottom.
That’s because, on Monday night, the Toffees were smashed 6-0 by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, frankly lucky to only concede six, equally fortunate to score nil.
This is the biggest defeat of Sean Dyche’s 531-game managerial career, while it’s also only the ninth time the Blues have lost a top-flight fixture by six-clear goals.
The other occasions, as you were wondering, came against: Arsenal (7-0 in 2005), Portsmouth (7-0 in 1949), Tottenham (10-4 in 1958), Newcastle (8-2 in 1959), Arsenal (6-0 in 1963), Tottenham (6-0 in 1956), Sheffield Wednesday (6-0 in 1951) and Chelsea (6-0 in 1948), so not many recent ones in there!
In the here and now, the Toffees have won only won of their last 15 Premier League fixtures, beating Burnley 1-0 a fortnight ago, thereby claiming their first win since beating, yes you guessed it, Burnley all the way back a week before Christmas.
After this, Dyche’s side face Liverpool (H), Brentford (H), Luton (A), Sheffield United (H) and Arsenal (A), so they are facing all of their relegation rivals, but that far from guarantees they’ll earn enough points to survive.
Nottingham Forest meantime kick off a point behind, having had four taken away for their own PSR breaches, meaning they’re only a point clear of the bottom three.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side though are in much better form, losing only one of their last five, albeit three of those have been draws, most-recently sharing the points with Wolves a week ago.
Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo on target during an entertaining 2-2 at the City Ground.
On the road, the Reds continue to be hopeless, winning only three of 35 Premier League away games since promotion, beating Southampton in January 2023, Chelsea in September and Newcastle on Boxing Day.
Given that Forest’s remaining fixtures, after this one, are Manchester City (H), Sheffield United (A), Chelsea (H) and Burnley (A), that measly figure will have to rise or they will go down.
Back in December, Dwight McNeil was the only scorer as Everton claimed a crucial 1-0 win by the River Trent, so can the Toffees now complete a first league-double over Forest since 96/97?
Draw and both teams to score
Both meetings between these two ended in draws last season, and we’re forecasting another stalemate that doesn’t really help either side here.
As mentioned, three of Forest’s last five fixtures have ended in draws while, given their complete incapability of winning away games, we cannot see them leaving Goodison victorious.
Everton meantime have only won four home matches this season, drawing six of their last 12 in the league, so a very unhelpful point a piece seems likely.
In terms of both teams to score, this has been the case in six of Everton’s last ten, while also occurring in each of Forest’s last five.
Both teams to receive multiple cards
The Toffees have collected multiple cards in five successive fixtures, while the Reds have done so in 15 of their last 22.
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