We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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It was a very disappointing set of results on Saturday despite eight of our suggestions being heavily supported (16/1 into 4/1, 12/1 into 6/1, 12/1 into 6/1 and 14/1 into 7/1 to mention just a few).
The most eye-catching of our selections was the Roger Varian-trained Elmalko, a fast-finishing third in the Fred Darling. This well-bred filly is crying out for at least another furlong, and I am more than happy with the 66/1 I have about the daughter of Kingman for the first fillies’ Classic of the season, providing that connections decide to take the Newmarket route that is?
Before Saturday, we were having a fair week, although Dutch Decoy (tipped at 16/1 and beaten a nose after failing to get a clear run) and Beau Balko, who plucked defeat from the jaws of victory with a shattering mistake 2 out as our 11/2 nap selection on Friday, should have added to a successful first five days.
- P/L for w/e 20th April: -£7.28
- P/L for year to date: +£61.09
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£346.26
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Friday, April 26th
Some cracking horse racing action under both codes on Friday afternoon. Sandown’s seven-race card features three Group races, while the highlight on the third day of Perth’s festival is the extended 3m 6f QuinnBet Highland National at 2.05pm. Both meetings will be covered on ITV4.
“Tip of the Day” - Cogitate (1:50pm Sandown) - 9/2 with Ladbrokes*
Making his handicap debut off a mark of 93, Charlie Hills’ son of Churchill looks a 100+ performer in the making and is fancied to take this bet365 Esher Cup before stepping up in class.
1:50pm Sandown, 1m - Cogitate (Nap)
Plenty of promising types in this 1m three-year-old handicap, none more so than the Charlie Hills-trained COGITATE (Nap). The Churchill colt made a winning debut at Newbury last July over 7f, beating a horse, Boiling Point, who achieved a rating of 107 after going down narrowly in Newmarket’s Grade 3 Tattersalls Stakes in September.
Not disgraced, despite failing to settle when fifth of the six runners in York’s Group 3 Acomb Stakes on his only other start as a juvenile, Cogitate may have run into a top-notcher when no match for Karl Burke’s Qipco 2000 Guineas-bound Night Raider on Southwell’s all-weather surface last month, 14 lengths clear of the third horse.
Tom Marquand’s mount is unlikely to meet anything of that quality in this contest. Off an opening mark of 93, Cogitate makes plenty of appeal back on turf.
Trainer Harry Charlton has made a good start to the season and his two-year-old Newmarket maiden winner Hand Of God is second choice in an informative contest.
2:05pm Perth, 3m 6 1/2f - Tom Cody (Each-Way)
A field of only 9 for this Highland National Handicap Chase but all have a chance, even bottom weight Return Fire, one of two runners for the Lucinda Russell stable, the other being the more fancied Haute Estime who has yet to fulfil her potential over the bigger obstacles.
Duke Of Deception, Prince Des Fichaux, Bretney and Breeze Of Wind all have decent form over this kind of trip. But the each-way vote goes to the Rebecca Menzies-trained TOM CODY (Each-Way), the mount of jockey Brian Hughes.
While the Morozov gelding has never raced beyond 3m 1f, the eight-year-old is a strong traveller and sure to be ridden very quietly by his experienced rider. Tom Cody won the Go North Red Rum Series Final at Carlisle earlier in the month on heavy ground. Today’s conditions are unlikely to be as testing and I expect the each-way selection to confirm that form with the fourth horse home, Breeze Of Wind, on 3lb worse terms.
3:00pm Sandown, 1m - Poker Face (Each-Way) (Next Best)
With little more than half a point covering the first three horses in the betting for this seven-runner Group 2 contest, how the market develops during the next 24 hours or so could have a significant bearing on the outcome.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum currently heads the betting at 5/2 but the Kingman colt’s fitness has to be taken on trust for what is his first start since finishing last of six in the Strensall Stakes at York last August. Ryan Moore’s mount has clearly had his issues and will do well to win following a break of eight months.
No fitness issues regarding Roger Varian’s Charyn, who made a winning reappearance when winning the Listed Doncaster Mile on the opening day of the Flat season, coming home a comfortable scorer from Pam Sly’s Astral Beau. Silvestre de Sousa’s mount will find this company tougher and may prefer a bit more give in the ground than is likely.
This one mile trip is probably the bare minimum for Lord North who may not be the force of old, which leaves Simon & Ed Crisford’s POKER FACE (Each-Way) as potentially the value bet of the race with several bookmakers offering three places.
James’s Doyle’s mount made rapid strides last season, winning a Pontefract Listed race before following up at Group 3 and Group 2 level at Deauville and Longchamp respectively. Probably unsuited by the very heavy ground when second at San Siro on his final outing of the season, I will be disappointed if Poker Face (second only to Lord North on ratings) fails to make the frame at the very least.
3:35pm Sandown, 1m 2f - Remaadd (Each-Way)
Put in as short as 10/11 with some bookmakers, I’m not sure I would want to take such short odds about the Godolphin favourite Arabian Crown, despite the possibility that the Dubawi colt could prove to be a serious Derby (not sure which) contender in the weeks ahead.
William Buick’s mount is drawn highest of all in stall nine and the form of his Zetland Stakes win was hardly boosted with runner-up Gasper De Lemos only managing to finish sixth in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket last week. Zetland third Dallas Star was a shock winner of Leopardstown’s Ballysax on his first start for trainer Adrian Murray however, although that form should be treated with a degree of caution.
Three of these ran against each other behind Roger Varian’s Al Musmak in the Ascendant Stakes at Haydock last September - Macduff, REMAADD (Each-Way) and Portland. Of the trio, one one I think has the potential to make his mark as a three-year-old is William Haggas’s Gleneagles colt.
Tom Marquand’s mount was an impressive winner of his maiden at Goodwood last August and still looked very much a work in progress when finishing a close third at the Merseyside racecourse. Providing Remaadd gets a clear run from his draw in stall one, he is capable of causing a minor shock in this Derby trial.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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