We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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It was a very disappointing set of results on Saturday despite eight of our suggestions being heavily supported (16/1 into 4/1, 12/1 into 6/1, 12/1 into 6/1 and 14/1 into 7/1 to mention just a few).
The most eye-catching of our selections was the Roger Varian-trained Elmalko, a fast-finishing third in the Fred Darling. This well-bred filly is crying out for at least another furlong, and I am more than happy with the 66/1 I have about the daughter of Kingman for the first fillies’ Classic of the season, providing that connections decide to take the Newmarket route that is?
Before Saturday, we were having a fair week, although Dutch Decoy (tipped at 16/1 and beaten a nose after failing to get a clear run) and Beau Balko, who plucked defeat from the jaws of victory with a shattering mistake 2 out as our 11/2 nap selection on Friday, should have added to a successful first five days.
- P/L for w/e 20th April: -£7.28
- P/L for year to date: +£61.09
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£346.26
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Thursday, April 25th
Heavy ground is expected for the only flat meeting due to take place on Thursday afternoon. The East Yorkshire racecourse at Beverley is joined by the jumps cards at Perth, Warwick and Huntingdon, the latter a twilight fixture starting at 4.00pm.
Nap of the Day - Lady In The Park (4:45pm Perth) - 7/2 with bet365*
Lucinda Russell’s unexposed mare will surely appreciate this extended 3m 2f stamina test and is expected to prove better than her current handicap mark of 112.
2:45pm Beverley, 5f - Honour Your Dreams (Each-Way)
An open sprint handicap run over the minimum trip in which I think bottom weight HONOUR YOUR DREAMS (Each-Way) has a good chance of recording his third victory to date, the last coming off today’s mark of 66 at Hamilton last July. The Adrian Paul Keatley-trained four-year-old has been kept busy on the all-weather over the winter, including decent-placed efforts at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
Few jockeys know Beverley better than Joe Fanning, who takes over in the saddle for the first time on a horse drawn highest of all in stall 11. Fanning is one of the best tactical jockeys around, and it would be no surprise to see him bring his mount across the track, as is often the case when the ground is testing.
Honour Your Dreams’ only other effort on heavy ground came when finishing second at Thirsk around this time last year off a mark of 70. The selection was repeatedly denied a clear run when 8th of 20 in a handicap at Ayr’s Western meeting last year and deserves a change of luck.
Of the many dangers, the list is headed by the race-fit Elegant Erin, who has plenty of soft-ground form to her name and runs off her lowest mark since recording a hat-trick of wins around this time two years ago.
4:10pm Perth, 2m 4f - A Different Kind
Now running off a mark 20lb higher than when opening his account over fences at Uttoxeter last summer, the Donald McCain-trained A DIFFERENT KIND went on to land the four-timer with another win at Uttoxeter and a couple over today’s course and distance heading into the autumn.
With a career record of nine wins from 18 starts (including two Bumpers), Brian Hughes’ mount is becoming something of a winning machine, and today’s mark of 145 looks far from insurmountable. The Doyen gelding has clearly taken to the Scottish track and is fancied to continue his winning run at the main expense of Olly Murphy’s hat-trick-seeking Sure Touch.
4:20pm Warwick, 3m 1f - Saint Davy
A competitive 3m 1f handicap hurdle in which the first and third horses home in a Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham back in October, Hyland and Flight Deck take each other on once again. On 5lb better terms, I can see Deborah Cole’s charge reversing that form with the Seven Barrows contender. But the horse who makes the most appeal is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained SAINT DAVY.
An Irish point-to-point winner back in November 2021, the Balko gelding won on his first two starts for connections, a Carlisle Bumper, before making a successful hurdling debut in a Chepstow maiden just after Christmas 2022. Not disgraced when finishing ninth in a Grade 1 contest at Aintree on just his second outing over the smaller obstacles, Saint Davy made a good start to this season with victories in handicaps at Ludlow and Sandown.
Strongly fancied to land the hat-trick in a seriously competitive Uttoxeter handicap on their Midlands Grand National card, the mount of Jonjo O’Neill Jr got bogged down on the heavy ground and is sure to appreciate today’s better conditions.
That Uttoxeter race was won by subsequent impressive Aintree scorer Gwennie May Boy, and the main danger to Saint Davy may come in the shape of that horse’s stablemate Take No Chances, both from the Dan Skelton stable.
4:45pm Perth, 3m 2 1/2f - Lady In The Park (Nap)
The winner of Haydock’s valuable Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final on his most recent start, Olly Murphy’s Secret Trix will be fancied by many to claim his sixth victory over hurdles despite having to race off a 7lb higher mark. While the mount of Sean Bowen is respected, preference is for Lucinda Russell’s unexposed LADY IN THE PARK (Nap), the mount of Derek Fox.
On just her third start over hurdles, the daughter of Walk In The Park failed by just over a length to concede almost two stone to winner Donso Star at Ayr last month, stablemate Czech Her Out coming home in third by the same distance. That horse went to take the valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr on Scottish Grand National day for Russell by a comfortable six and a half lengths.
I will be surprised if this lightly-raced mare does not prove to be much better than her current mark of 112, especially with this step-up in trip expected to bring even more improvement.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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