We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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It was a very disappointing set of results last Saturday despite eight of our suggestions being heavily supported (16/1 into 4/1, 12/1 into 6/1, 12/1 into 6/1 and 14/1 into 7/1 to mention just a few).
The most eye-catching of our selections was the Roger Varian-trained Elmalko, a fast-finishing third in the Fred Darling. This well-bred filly is crying out for at least another furlong, and I am more than happy with the 66/1 I have about the daughter of Kingman for the first fillies’ Classic of the season, providing that connections decide to take the Newmarket route that is?
Before last Saturday, we were having a fair week, although Dutch Decoy (tipped at 16/1 and beaten a nose after failing to get a clear run) and Beau Balko, who plucked defeat from the jaws of victory with a shattering mistake 2 out as our 11/2 nap selection on Friday, should have added to a successful first five days.
- P/L for w/e 20th April: -£7.28
- P/L for year to date: +£61.09
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£346.26
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, April 27th
The 2023/24 Jumps season comes to a close at Sandown on Saturday afternoon with Irish maestro Willie Mullins having one hand on the trainers’ championship trophy.
A fabulous afternoon is in store, the betting highlight being the bet365 Gold Cup at 3:35pm. With no significant rain forecast for Sandown until after racing, I am hoping conditions remain principally good.
“Tip of the Day” - Kitty’s Light (Each-Way) (3:35pm Sandown) - 9/2 with William Hill* (5 places)
There would be no more popular winner of the final major handicap of the jumps season than last year’s winner who can gain some compensation for his excellent effort in finishing fifth in the Grand National by recording back-to-back victories in this historic contest.
1:50pm Sandown, 2m - Maasai Mara (Each-Way)
Hard to know where to start in an effort to find the winner of this bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle run over two miles. The majority of bookmakers are going five places (⅕ the odds) which I think is a bit mean considering the competitive nature of this 20-runner conundrum. Livescorebet are offering six places and I think their 14/1 about the John O’Shea-trained MAASAI MARA (Each-Way) is fair enough.
The easy winner of a Catterick maiden on his second outing over hurdles, from a horse who has two subsequent wins to his name, Jack Tudor’s mount went on to finish second to a 130-rated horse of Paul Nicholls on his most recent start two weeks ago. A winner twice on the flat when trained by John & Thady Gosden last year, Maasai Mara gets plenty of weight from most of his rivals and is a sporting each-way selection in a wide-open contest.
2:05pm Leicester, 1m - Magic Memories (Each-Way)
Despite racing from 1lb out of the handicap, the Gary Moore-trained MAGIC MEMORIES (Each-Way) makes some each way appeal with claimer Jack Enright taking 7lb off. The Starspangledbanner gelding handles today’s conditions well and is capable of improving upon his current rating of 80.
Closely matched with fellow rival Thunder Roar on Doncaster Spring Mile form, Magic Memories found himself a bit short of room inside the final furlong on Town Moor and this consistent performer can improve upon that effort with the run under his belt.
2:25pm Sandown, 2m 6 1/2f - Ga Law (Each-Way)
It’s been a disappointing season for connection of The Real Whacker, winner of last season’s Browns Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival, a race in which Patrick Neville’s charge had Gerri Colombe and I Am Maximus back in second and fourth places respectively. Providing the ground remains on the good side, the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies is probably the one to beat. However, with three places available I prefer to side with Jamie Snowden’s GA LAW (Each-Way).
Gavin Sheehan’s mount put up an excellent weight-carrying performance to win a Premier Handicap on Trials Day at Cheltenham in January, a reproduction of which would put the eight-year-old bang in the mix for this Grade 2 contest run over almost 2m 7f.
2:45pm Haydock, 7f - Zip (Each-Way)
Hard to rule out any of the 10 runners for this 7f Class 2 handicap due to take place under testing conditions. One horse who won’t have any problems with the forecast heavy going is the Richard Fahey-trained ZIP (Each-Way). Either first or second on six occasions when the word heavy appeared in the going description, the mount of 3lb claimer Tyler Heard has performed well on all previous visits to the track and at a double-figure price gets the each-way vote.
Beaten just over four lengths when 4th of 14 at Doncaster’s opening fixture of the season, the grey son of Kyllachy is now back to his last winning mark of 87. Irish challenger Earls is an obvious danger for trainer Gavin Cromwell.
3:00pm Sandown, 1m 7 1/2f - Nube Negra
Our Tips: Nube Negra - 40/1 with bet365
Nube Negra - 15/2 with William Hill (without El Fabiolo and Jonbon)
In a race which, on the face of it, looks like a straight match between Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo and old rival Jonbon, things rarely prove to be so straightforward, as the result of this season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase will testify. Just a week or so before that championship contest, who could have predicted that Nicky Henderson’s charge wouldn’t be in the line-up and that 2/9 favourite El Fabiolo would fail to complete the course?
This may be a race to watch rather than having a financial interest in. But providing the going is genuinely on the good side at the Esher track, I would not be surprised to see trainer Dan Skelton pull another rabbit from the hat courtesy of a massive run from the talented but frustrating NUBE NEGRA.
The 10-year-old has a good record following a break and on his first start for three months will be fresher than most of his six rivals. At around odds of 40/1, I am prepared to take a chance on Harry Skelton’s mount making a mockery of the form book.
On the day, some bookmakers are likely to offer prices without both El Fabiolo and Jonbon, in which case odds of around 6/1 about Nube Negra would be of interest.
3:35pm Sandown, 3m 4 1/2f - Kitty’s Light (Each-Way)
Having backed the Lucinda Russell-trained Your Own Story earlier in the week, I knew it was more than likely that Derek Fox’s mount would struggle to make the cut. At the time of writing, the eight-year-old is second reserve and an unlikely starter.
There would be no more popular winner than the horse who came out best of the British-trained runners in the Randox Grand National two weeks ago, KITTY’S LIGHT (Each-Way) from the Christian Williams stable and winner of this race 12 months ago.
Still only an eight-year-old, the Nathaniel gelding comes alive at this time of the year and off a mark only 5lb higher than when winning the Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup last year, that excellent Aintree run suggests that Jack Tudor’s mount is the one to beat yet again in the final major handicap of the jumps season.
Paul Nicholls’ top weight Threeunderthrufive has clearly been laid out for this race and rates the main danger along with Dan Skelton’s Le Milos in the pair’s quest for the trainers’ title. Of the formidable Irish challenge, Henry de Bromhead’s Amirite appeals most.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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