Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Betting Tips for Monday 26th September

A disappointing Saturday with several big-priced placed horses, ensuring a slight profit on the day, but finding winners was more elusive. However, we are still showing a healthy monthly profit of £66.44 to a £1 level stake as we go into the final few days of September.

The week commences with some fairly run-of-the-mill action, the best of which comes from the Scottish racecourse at Hamilton, and that is where we go for Monday’s horse racing selections.

3.23pm Hamilton - Indemnify (Nap of the Day)

An excellent third in the Beverley Bullet over today’s course and distance last month, Michael Appleby’s speedy gelding is fancied to make all of the running in this Class 2 contest.

2.48pm Hamilton - Shampion (Next Best)

This nine-runner fillies’ handicap is dominated by three-year-olds, with seven runners coming from that generation. Of the two older contenders, Sound Of Iona finished runner-up at Newmarket two days ago, while Golden Melody looks totally exposed, having his 34th career start.

The winner looks sure to come from the Classic crop, the two most likely candidates being Spanish and Shampion. The pair met at Windsor on the first day of August when Roger Varian’s charge ran out a decisive four-length winner with William Haggas’s runner over five lengths back in fifth place.

However, the latter won comfortably on Kempton’s all-weather surface on her most recent start, while Shampion failed to beat a single rival at York’s Ebor meeting. The mount of Andrea Atzeni lost all chance on the Knavesmire by pulling far too hard in the early stages, and if settling better on this occasion, should confirm that Windsor form with Spanish on only 1lb worse terms.

Alan's Next Best

2.48pm Hamilton

Shampion can get back to winning ways here

At 4/1 a £10 bet would return £50

Hamilton

September 26, 2022

2:48 pm BST

3.23pm Hamilton - Indemnify (Nap of the Day)

We have yet to see the best of the lightly-raced pair of three-year-olds, Marhaba The Champ and Roudemental, while top-weight Stunning Beauty will appreciate the drop in class after competing at a higher level all season. However, this looks like another race destined to go the way of the in-form Roger Varian stable with Indemnify.

Unraced as a juvenile, the grey son of Lope de Vega made an encouraging debut when fourth of 17 in a Newbury maiden back in April before running Godolphin’s First Ruler (now rated 97) to a length and a half at Doncaster on his second start.

Indemnify off the mark in style earlier today at Nottingham in the hands of David Egan for @varianstable pic.twitter.com/q8l9tc9AKP
— Adam Morgan (@Adam_Morgs) August 12, 2022

Runner-up again three weeks later at Newcastle (beaten a neck by the 90-rated Baltimore Boy with subsequent Haydock handicap winner Delorean back in third), the consistent colt finally opened his account with a wide-margin victory in a minor contest at Nottingham before making his handicap debut at Salisbury at the beginning of this month.

While only second once again, there was no disgrace in being beaten a little over a length by winner Persian Royal who was recording his fourth straight win in less than two months. The mount of David Egan runs off a 2lb higher mark here but looks far from harshly treated and with more improvement to come.

Alan's Nap of the Day

3.23pm Hamilton

Indemnify will take all the beating for trainer Roger Varian

At 9/4 a £10 bet would return £32.50

Hamilton

September 26, 2022

3:23 pm BST

3.58pm Hamilton - Fourth Time Lucky (Longshot)

This modest Class 5 handicap looks like a good opportunity for the Richard Fahey-trained Fourth Time Lucky to open his account at the eleventh time of asking, especially with talented apprentice Mark Winn taking 7lb off the gelding’s back.

The three-year-old son of Holy Roman Emperor finished third on all three starts as a juvenile, going down by a combined distance of only three and a half lengths. Fourth Time Lucky has been running well without winning in 2022 off marks in the mid 70′s and now runs of 68 (61 if you take his rider’s valuable claim into account).

After racing over seven furlongs this season, the selection patently failed to see out the one mile two and a half furlong trip at York last time. Back over a more suitable distance of just over a mile, Fourth Time Luck has his best chance yet of troubling the judge in a race that shouldn’t take too much winning. Last month’s course third Can’t Stop Now, on his second outing for trainer Iain Jardine, is the other one to consider.

Alan's Longshot

3.58pm Hamilton

Fourth Time Lucky can go close under Mark Winn

At 7/1 a £10 bet would return £80

Hamilton

September 26, 2022

3:58 pm BST

* Odds correct at the time of writing but subject to change.

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