Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Betting Tips for Tuesday 25th October

The victories of Gowel Road and Our Power on Saturday meant we finished the week with a profit of £11.70. With just one day left, we are up £46.03 for the month of October and a healthy £111.77 since the beginning of September.

The big disappointment on an informative Saturday was the performance of Ahoy Senor in the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase. The Dylan Thomas gelding was beaten first time out in a Bumper and looked like a beaten horse on his chasing debut at Carlisle 12 months ago. It may well be a case that the talented chaser just needs a run under his belt to blow the cobwebs away. It looks like Lucinda Russel’s charge will head to Aintree for the Many Clouds Chase next. Personally, I would be tempted by Newbury’s prestigious Coral Gold Cup in four weeks’ time, a course where Ahoy Senor won by 31 lengths on his second run over fences.

Monday’s horse racing tips feature two selections from the card at Hereford and one from Plumpton. We also have a tip for ‘the race that stops a nation,’ Flemington’s Melbourne Cup, due to take place at 4.00am on Tuesday morning.

2.35pm Hereford - Midnight Jewel (Nap of the Day)

Charlie Longsdon’s improving chaser can get back to winning ways over fences after the gelding’s hat-trick attempt came unstuck when Lilly Pinchin’s mount fell at the final fence at Stratford earlier in the month.

2.00pm Hereford - Addosh (Next Best)

On paper, all seven runners have a chance of winning this two-mile mares’ handicap hurdle, particularly recent Stratford winner Aliomaana, Princess T and course winner Sashenka, on her first start for trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis.

However, providing the daughter of The Gurkha encounters a trouble-free round on this occasion, Stuart Edmunds’ top weight Addosh makes plenty of appeal in the hands of regular partner Ciaran Gethings.

The filly has won three of her ten starts over hurdles, failing to complete the course in four of the other seven, including when falling at the final flight at Uttoxeter last month when still in with half a chance. The filly is normally a safe jumper of a hurdle but tends to lose concentration towards the end of her races, as was the case when again coming to grief at the last when three lengths behind eventual winner Knight Salute (rated 145) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 contest last November.

Addosh is clearly a talented hurdler when things drop right, and providing her jumping holds up should prove too good for her six rivals off a mark of 120.

Alan's Next Best

2.00pm Hereford

Addosh looks a strong bet to notch up another win

At 11/2 a £10 bet would return £65

Hereford

October 31, 2022

2:00 pm GMT+1

2.35pm Hereford - Midnight Jewel (Nap of the Day)

A last fence faller when disputing the lead on his most recent start at Stratford earlier in the month, the Charlie Longsdon-trained Midnight Jewel was possibly unlucky in his hat-trick attempt, as the six-year-old still looked to have plenty more to give when coming to grief in that 2m 5f contest, a race won by 40/1 outsider Fairway Freddy.

The winner of four of his 16 starts over hurdles, the mount of 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin looks set to prove even better over the bigger obstacles and may well have had a record of three wins from four starts over fences, but for that rare error at Stratford.

With only 9lb covering five of the six runners in this Class 4 handicap, Midnight Jewel is unlikely to have things all his own way if usual front-running tactics are employed. But the Midnight Legend gelding’s fitness advantage over possible main rivals Mackelduff and Highstakesplayer could prove decisive.

Alan's Nap of the Day

2.35pm Hereford

Midnight Jewel is the one they all have to beat

At 9/4 a £10 bet would return £32.50

Hereford

October 31, 2022

2:35 pm GMT+1

4.05pm Plumpton - San Pedro (Longshot)

Hat-trick-seeking bottom weight Boomtime Banker has to be the most likely winner of this extended 2m 4f handicap hurdle following the unexposed mares’ victories at Worcester and here at Plumpton last month, especially with the 7lb claim of rider Archie Bellamy taking the eight-year-old’s weight down to a mere 9st 9lb.

With the D J Jefferys-trained mare expected to be sent off a warm favourite, there may be some each-way value to be had in San Pedro from the Paul Henderson stable who has the services of jockey Harry Cobden for the first time.

The five-year-old son of Gleneagles has yet to open his account over hurdles after 10 attempts but is beginning to look well treated off a career-low hurdling mark of 98. San Pedro’s best effort to date came when runner-up to recent Cheltenham winner Seddon at Lingfield last November.

A run on the Flat at Goodwood earlier in the month should have put the each-way selection spot-on for his hurdling reappearance. With some bookmakers expected to go four places, San Pedro can make the frame at the very least.

Alan's Longshot

4.05pm Plumpton

San Pedro looks set for a big run under Harry Cobden

At 7/1 a £10 bet would return £80

Plumpton

October 31, 2022

4:05 pm GMT+1

4.00am Flemington - Duais

James Fergusons’ Deauville Legend certainly looks the one they all have to beat in the great race following some top-class efforts by the son of Sea The Stars, including when running out a comfortable winner of York’s Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes on his most recent start.

That race took place back in August, since when the talented three-year-old stayer has been trained with this historic contest very much in mind. The only negative about three-time winner Kerrin McEvoy’s mount is his current odds of around 5/2.

The Caulfield Cup is always a good guide to the outcome of the Melbourne Cup, and I thought the Edward Cummings-trained Duais ran an eyecatching race to finish a close-up eighth after being tenderly handled over the inadequate trip of 1m 4f.

Top jockey Hugh Bowman has been booked for the ride, and while the trainer has a long way to go to equal grandfather Bart’s record 12 wins in the race, he can continue the family tradition with a debut victory in the two-mile Group 1 Lexus-sponsored handicap.

Alan's Tip

4.00am Flemington

Duais & Hugh Bowman can land Melbourne Cup success

At 22/1 a £10 bet would return £230

Flemington

November 01, 2022

4:00 am GMT

* Odds correct at the time of writing but subject to change.

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