Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse racing tips for all 12 live races on ITV Racing on Saturday
Alan Kelly Get fresh daily selections and a standout Nap of the Day from our in-house racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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Three out of six winning naps for the week ending Saturday 5th July, two at odds of 4/1 and one at 7/4. Despite no winners on Saturday, we had horses placed at 6/1, 18/1 and 22/1, resulting in a small profit for the week of +£5.45.
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
The expression, too much of a good thing, could easily apply to Saturday’s horse racing coverage, which features high quality action from three meetings, Newmarket, York and Ascot.
Not surprisingly, with so much top class flat action on show, ITV Racing will be covering a mammoth 12 races, six on Newmarket’s July Cup card, four from York, the highlight of which is the John Smith’s Cup at 3:10pm, and two from Ascot.
Nap - Miss Nightfall (2:12pm Newmarket)
James Fanshawe’s filly, a heavily-backed favourite when badly drawn at Royal Ascot, can reward her supporters with a victory in this 7f fillies’ handicap.
1:40pm Newmarket - No Bet
An informative two-year-old maiden in which only three of the 10 runners have had a run, the most promising of which is the Richard Hannon-trained Orion’s Belt. In a race featuring several well-bred newcomers, I will pass this one over.
2:00pm York - Sisyphean (Each-Way)
A creditable fourth in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes, Owen Burrows’ Remmooz makes his handicap debut off a fair mark of 98 in this one mile contest on the Knavesmire. I would rather take Kevin Stott’s mount on with the Kevin Ryan-trained SISYPHEAN (Each-Way), the four-year-old last seen finishing 9th behind My Clouds in the Royal Hunt Cup.
The Dubawi colt was bang there until inside the closing stages of that one mile cavalry charge and will be much more at home in this smaller field. On 3lb better terms, Shane Grey’s mount can reverse placings with Hambleton Handicap conqueror Old Cock at the Dante meeting back in May.
Recommendation: Sisyphean (Each-Way) - 13/2 with bet365 (3 places)
2:12pm Newmarket - Miss Nightfall (Nap)
Supported into favouritism for Royal Ascot’s Sandringham Stakes last month, James Fanshawe’s MISS NIGHTFALL (Nap) was far from disgraced in finishing sixth of the 25 runners. Drawn highest of all in stall 28 (3 non-runners) the Sands Of Mali filly did well to be beaten a little over three lengths in a race dominated by horses drawn in single figures.
Saffie Osborne’s mount has been raised only 1lb for that effort and in receipt of 17lb from another Royal Ascot winner in Kensington Palace victor Miss Information, is confidently expected to take this valuable fillies’ handicap.
Recommendation: Miss Nightfall (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
2:22pm Ascot - Never So Brave
Royal Ascot handicap winners My Clouds and NEVER SO BRAVE both step up into Group company following those wins, slight preference being for the latter, a comfortable winner of the 7f Buckingham Palace Stakes under joint top weight of 9st 12lb.
The No Nay Never gelding never really fulfilled his undoubted potential as a three-year-old with Sir Michael Stoute. But since being gelded, could not have been more impressive at the royal meeting, and looks every inch a Group horse this season.
Recommendation: Never So Brave - 4/1 with Coral
2.35pm York - Washington Heights
Beaten just over two lengths when 7th in Royal Ascot’s Group 1 King Charles 111 Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, this looks a good opportunity for Kevin Ryan’s WASHINGTON HEIGHTS to record his first victory since winning Newmarket’s Group 3 Abernant Stakes in April of last year.
Shane Gray’s mount has been performing with credit at the highest level over the last 15 months and is sure to appreciate dropping back into Listed company for this £70k John Smith’s City Walls Stakes run over the minimum trip.
Recommendation: Washington Heights - 5/2 with Betfred
2:50pm Newmarket - Ten Pounds
William Haggas’s More Thunder looked a little unlucky when just failing to catch George Baker’s Get It in last month’s Wokingham at the royal meeting. Over today’s extra furlong it is easy to see why Tom Marquand’s mount is no bigger than 15/8 to take today’s £100k Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap).
A neck behind More Thunder at Ascot was Harry Charlton’s TEN POUNDS, the two horses again meeting on the same terms, and I think Trevor Whelan’s mount has every chance of reversing that form. The Ten Sovereigns gelding will appreciate the return to 7f and can be forgiven his disappointing run in Ascot’s Victoria Cup when getting upset in the stalls, the four-year-old’s defeat at Doncaster last year following a hat-trick of wins coming on very soft ground.
Recommendation: Ten Pounds - 9/2 with Betfred
3:10pm York - Archivist & Naqeeb (Each-Way)
While not very original, it is hard to ignore the claims of the William Haggas-trained ARCHIVIST in this £200k John Smith’s Cup (Heritage Handicap). A winner on this course last month when making his handicap debut, the son of Dubawi looked to be crying out for this step-up in trip and a 5lb penalty is unlikely to stop this progressive colt from following up in the hands of jockey Adam Farragher.
At a much bigger price, I think it is also worth backing an ex Haggas inmate in NAQEEB (Each-Way), now in the care of trainer Julie Camacho. The Nathaniel gelding has improved with each of his three runs for connections, most recently when third in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at the royal meeting. Kevin Stott’s mount should make the frame with a repeat of that performance.
Recommendations: Archivist - 7/2 with Paddy Power & Naqeeb (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (5 places)
3:25pm Newmarket - Fifth Column
Godolphin are represented by three of the seven contenders for this one mile handicap, the Charlie Appleby-trained pair of Bedouin Prince and Secret Theory and FIFTH COLUMN from the John & Thady Gosden stable, at today’s weights, the vote going to the Clarehaven Stables runner.
Best of those drawn low when seventh in Royal Ascot’s Britannia Stakes (Raafedd and unlucky favourite), the Kingman gelding finished first in his group and can be marked-up for such an excellent effort on just his third start on turf. Jockey Ryan Moore is not a bad substitute for regular partner William Buick.
Recommendation: Fifth Column - 3/1 with Coral
3:45pm York - Subsequent
Despite a field of only 6 runners, this 1m 6f Group 3 contest looks quite an open affair with all but the outsider of the party, Maghlaak, making some appeal. Tom Clover’s Tabletalk has been running well in defeat this season, but Rossa Ryan’s mount finished well behind Andrew Balding’s SUBSEQUENT in Ascot’s Noel Murless Stakes at the back end of last season, and if the son of Galileo is fit enough on his first outing for nine months, the mount of P J McDonald is fancied to go close.
Recommendation: Subsequent - 5/1 with William Hill
4:00pm Newmarket - No Bet
Ballydoyle’s Leopardstown maiden winner Italy is clearly well-regarded, the son of Wootton Bassett sent off at odds of 4/9 for that debut victory. The runner-up Thesecretadversary gave the form a boost when finishing second in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ryan Moore’s mount should win this Group 2 contest, but at a best price 4/6, a race best watched with a view to the future.
4:35pm Newmarket - Spy Chief (Each-Way) & Ides Of March (Each-Way)
I can't remember a more open renewal of today’s feature race; with that in mind, I will back both SPY CHIEF (Each-Way) and IDES OF MARCH (Each-Way) at big prices. Having tipped Spy Chief for the 7f Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, I was more than hopeful as, on just his fourth career start, the well-bred son of Kingman, in setting a strong pace up front, had most of his rivals in trouble until collared by eventual winner Noble Champion going inside the final furlong.
Robert Havlin’s mount still ended the race almost three lengths in front of the third horse home, favourite Comanche Brave, and at the 22/1 available with Betvictor, looks overpriced. There is a massive difference in prices between the two Ballydoyle contenders, Whistlejacket currently no bigger than 11/2, while stablemate Ides Of March can be backed at 66/1 with Paddy Power.
The latter was only just touched off by Ryan Moore’s mount on ground that wouldn’t have suited the Wootton Bassett colt at Navan back in April and at a massive price is worth backing (each-way) in this wide-open Group 1 contest.
Recommendations: Spy Chief (Each-Way) - 22/1 with Betvictor (4 places) & Ides Of March (Each-Way) - 66/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
4:50pm Ascot - Blue Day (Each-Way)
A wide-open sprint handicap to end ITV’s 12-race coverage, the vote for the £100k 5f contest going to the Harry Charlton-trained BLUE DAY (Each-Way). Callum Shepherd’s mount ran out an easy winner over today’s course and distance in April and may have found the ground too soft when a beaten favourite at Hamilton last month.
Recommendation: Blue Day (Each-Way) - 9/1 with William Hill (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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