We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Once again, Aintree’s Grand National three-day meeting did not disappoint, although we ended the week with a small loss of -£4.15. Despite selections making the frame at odds of 14/1, 18/1, 25/1 and 33/1, that elusive big-priced winner failed to materialise.
- P/L for w/e Saturday 13th April: -£4.15
- P/L for 2024 to date: +£68.37
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£353.54
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, April 20th
It’s one of my favourite Saturdays of the year, with top-quality horse racing action under both codes. Along with the Spring Cup, Newbury’s card features trials for the Qipco 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
Ayr stages a fabulous afternoon of jumps action, including the Coral Scottish Grand National at 3.35pm. Runners from the Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton, and Paul Nicholls stables feature heavily in the ongoing quest for the 2023/24 trainers’ championship.
Nap of the Day - L’Eau du Sud (2:25pm Ayr) - 4/1 with Ladbrokes*
Runner-up in two of the biggest handicap hurdles of the season so far, Dan Skelton’s charge is fancied to land that elusive big payday at long last.
1:15pm Ayr, 2m 1/2f - Sans Bruit (Next Best)
The title-chasing trio of trainers - Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton, and Paul Nicholls - are all represented in this opening £50k handicap chase, which features a field of six runners.
Despite racing off a 10lb higher mark than when winning the Red Rum at Aintree’s Grand National meeting last week, the Ditcheat contender, SANS BRUIT, so impressive on just his second run over fences for the stable since leaving France, can defy a revised rating of 140 by following-up at the main expense of Ann Hamilton’s top weight Tommys Oscar.
1:30pm Newbury, 1m 4f - Chesspiece (Each-Way)
Based on his St Leger second behind Ballydoyle’s Continuous, the John & Thady Gosden-trained Arrest is clearly the one to beat in this Group 3 contest. Whether the son of Frankel represents any value at around 11/10 is another matter, however. The forecast soft ground will suit Kieran Shoemark’s mount, but not necessarily by the drop back in trip.
One horse I think will appreciate today’s distance of 1m 4f is CHESSPIECE (Each-Way) from the Simon & Ed Crisford stable. Gelded towards the back end of last year, the son of Nathaniel failed to show his true form when sixth on Town Moor after running Desert Hero (half a length behind Arrest in the Classic) to a neck in Goodwood’s Group 3 Gordon Stakes over similar conditions to those of today.
Chesspiece’s dam, Royal Solitaire, was at her best over distances ranging from 1m to 1m 2f. The Godolphin four-year-old should win his fair share of races this season, possibly when racing abroad.
1:50pm Ayr, 3m - Maclaine (Each-Way)
The Venetia Williams-trained Montgomery is on a four-timer following victories at Bangor (twice) and Leicester since leaving the Christian Williams stable two months ago and may well be up to defying this 22lb higher mark since recording the first of those three wins. With original top weight Stay Away Fay coming out of the race at the final declaration stage, Richard J Bandey’s MACLAINE (Each-Way) will be carrying 10st 5lb rather than running from well out of the handicap.
The Masked Marvel gelding has always looked like a decent chaser in the making, even more so after running out an impressive winner at Newbury on his fourth start over the bigger obstacles last month. Yet to race over a trip this far, I think Harry Bannister’s mount will relish this extra furlong and a half and is the each-way pick over Montgomery and Jonjo O’Neill’s Inch House.
2:05pm Newbury, 7f - Elmalka
There are only six runners for this Qipco 1000 Guineas trial, three of which hold an entry in the first fillies’ Classic of the season next month. The two most prominent in the ante-post market are John & Thady Gosden’s Regal Jubilee and ELMALKA from the Roger Varian stable, priced up at 33/1 and 66/1, respectively, with bet365.
At this stage, the Qipco 1000 Guineas looks far more open than the 2000, run 24 hours earlier and in which City Of Troy is no bigger than 8/11. The highest-rated contender for this 7f trial is the William Haggas inmate Relief Rally who, based on her excellent juvenile form, is probably going to be at her best over 6f.
I have no doubt that something currently lurking at a massive price will enter the 1000 Guineas picture following one of these trials, the $64,000 dollar question is which one? Winning a minor two-year-old race at Southwell may be a long way from being a potential Classic contender. But there was a lot to like about Elmalka’s victory in that 7f novices’ stakes, as the filly looked as green as grass for most of the race.
Out of Group 1 Prix De L’Opera winner Nahrain (also trained by Varian), the daughter of Kingman, has the pedigree to do well over distances ranging from 1m to 1m 2f - a victory here is likely to see her odds shorten dramatically for next month’s Classic.
2:25pm Ayr, 2m - L’Eau Du Sud (Nap)
In his quest for the trainers’ title, I think Dan Skelton will be relying heavily on his L’EAU DU SUD (Nap) winning this £100k Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap), a race the ex-French-trained six-year-old would certainly not be winning out of turn following tremendous efforts in finishing runner-up in both the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle on his last two starts.
Harry Skelton’s mount was particularly unlucky to come up against last year’s Ebor winner, Absurde, at Prestbury Park, with the third horse home, Pied Piper, over three lengths away. While L’Eau du Sud continues to creep up the handicap (9lb higher than at Newbury) I expect the grey to finally land a much-deserved major prize.
2:40pm Newbury, 7f - Room Service (Each-Way)
Mill Reef, Kris, Celtic Swing, Frankel and Kingman are among the many outstanding winners of this significant trial for the Qipco 2000 Guineas. However, the winner of this year’s renewal is unlikely to feature anything of that calibre, although Ralph Beckett’s favourite Zoum Zoum is unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile.
Being a gelding, the son of Zoustar is barred from running in the first Classic of the season, although Rob Hornby’s mount could struggle to get a mile with a pedigree all about speed. A victory in a Saint-Cloud Listed race run on heavy ground does not entitle Zoum Zoum to be as short as evens for today’s race, and I would rather look elsewhere for an each-way alternative with four places available with a couple of bookmakers.
Trainer Richard Fahey won Thursday’s Nell Gwyn with Pretty Crystal, and it would be no surprise to see another trial go to a northern raider on this occasion with the Kevin Ryan-trained ROOM SERVICE (Each-Way). I thought Clive Cox’s Dragon Leader was a good thing to win a £300k Sales race at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, only to be put well and truly in his place by Room Service, despite receiving 8lb from the mount of Tom Eaves.
A 12/1 chance with Betfred (4 places) the each-way selection would be shorter if coming from a bigger stable, although Ryan’s Hi Royal found only winner Chaldean too good in last year’s 2000 Guineas.
3:00pm Ayr, 3m 1/2f - Larchmont Lad (Each-Way)
While this mares’ handicap hurdle makes little appeal from a betting perspective, Paul Nicholls’ lightly-weighted LARCHMONT LAD (Each-Way) looks sure to be concerned in the finish with just 10st 4lb to carry in the hands of jockey Harry Cobden.
Fourth in a Grade 2 mares’ novices’ limited handicap at Newbury on her most recent start, the daughter of Walk In The Park ( a Listed Bumper winner on heavy ground at Sandown last March) should not be far away with a similar effort.
3:15pm Newbury, 1m - Noble Order (Each-Way)
As you would expect for a 21-runner OLBG Spring Cup, a seriously competitive one-mile handicap in which most of the field can be given a chance. I don’t think this is one of the classiest renewals, however, my each-way selection coming further down the weights in the Archie Watson-trained NOBLE ORDER (Each-Way), the mount of Hollie Doyle.
Trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin until joining Watson two months ago, the four-year-old sent off favourite on all four starts for the boys in blue, including a comfortable Kempton maiden victory in January 2022, made a successful start for new connection with a victory on Newcastle’s all-weather surface in February, the gelding’s first outing for 456 days.
Off a 6lb higher mark, Noble Order was heavily supported for a race at Redcar recently, only for the meeting to be called off due to waterlogging. Nicely drawn in stall 11, the son of Dubawi is still very much unexposed and is fancied to run a big race in an open contest.
3:35pm Ayr, 4m - Mr Vango (Each-Way)
I’m happy to oppose the Willie Mullins contenders for this 4m stamina test. But for the prospect of a British trainer’s championship, the Closutton handler’s six runners suggest strength in numbers rather than a degree of confidence in an effort to follow up last week’s famous victory at Aintree.
My two against the field for what promises to be a seriously competitive renewal are MY SILVER LINING (Each-Way) from the Emma Lavelle stable and the Sara Bradstock-trained MR VANGO (Each-Way).
The former has not finished out of the frame in over a year, the highlight being a victory in Warwick’s Classic Chase in January. The grey mare is the model of consistency, and with just 10st 3lb to carry, James Best’s mount can make the frame at the very least.
Mr Vango will be having just his fourth run over fences but looked a talented staying chaser in the making when winning an extended 3m 6f handicap at Exeter by 60 lengths before contesting the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
While no match for the classy Corbetts Cross, Mr Vango was still in with a chance of finishing second when making a mistake at the final fence.
Jockey Ben Jones has had five winners from his last 20 rides and could well land the biggest success of his career so far on a horse who looks well treated on a mark of 135.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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