Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse racing tips for all seven live races on ITV Racing on Saturday
Alan Kelly Get fresh daily selections and a standout Nap of the Day from our in-house racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Despite a winning day on Saturday, we ended the week with a loss of -£5.60. Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate meeting did us no favours with our 7/1 tip for the Gosforth Park Cup, Vintage Clarets, grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. Saturday’s card started in the same vein with the short head defeat of Pocklington (tipped at 7/1) in the opener.
Our 50/1 each-way tip for the Northumberland Plate consolation race, Letsbefrank, despite losing at least 20 lengths at the start, when doing a good impression of the Hamlet cigar advert (for those of a certain age), still managed to be beaten only 5 lengths in 10th place.
- P/L for the w/e Sunday, June 29th: -£5.60
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: -£23.94
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£467.65
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
The ITV Racing cameras will cover seven races on Saturday, four from Sandown Park and three from Haydock Park, the feature race being the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse, the final race of this afternoon’s TV coverage at 3:35pm.
Nap - Valiancy (2.05pm Haydock)
William Haggas’s charge is sure to appreciate today’s step-up in trip and can take advantage of a potentially lenient opening handicap mark of 80 with a victory in this three-year-old stamina test.
1:50pm Sandown - Saratoga Special (Each-Way)
Runner-up in both the Palace House and Temple Stakes, Irish filly She’s Quality sets the standard for this ultra-competitive Group 3 sprint. The daughter of Acclamation represents little in the way of value however at a best price 7/2. At a double-figure price, I would rather back the other Irish-trained runner, Jessica Harrington’s SARATOGA SPECIAL (Each-Way).
The mount of Shane Foley is an improving sprinter, producing her best performance to date when winning a Listed contest at Ayr last month at odds of 50/1. The Mehmas filly will need some luck in running from her draw in stall 3 if usual hold-up tactics are employed, but will be doing her best work at the finish of this wide-open contest.
Recommendation: Saratoga Special (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Coral (4 places)
2:05pm Haydock - Valiancy (Nap)
Sent off at odds of 1/7 to open his account at the third attempt when contesting a Hamilton maiden race last month, the William Haggas-trained VALIANCY (Nap) gave his supporters one or two anxious moments until the Cracksman gelding finally got on top of runner-up Elsass approaching the final furlong, eventually running out a two and a half length winner over that trip of 1m 3f.
While the form of that race is nothing to get excited about, Harry Davies’ mount is sure to appreciate today’s extra three furlongs, and off an opening handicap mark of 80, is fancied to take this three-year-old £100k stamina test for owner Wathnan Racing.
Ralph Beckett’s top weight Prince Of The Seas is better than his two runs this season would indicate and Hector Crouch’s mount can give Valiancy most to do.
Recommendation: Valiancy (Nap) - 7/2 with Coral
2:25pm Sandown - Arisaig (Each-Way)
Royal Hunt Cup fourth Greek Order and the William Haggas-trained Treasure Time head the betting for this £125k Coral Challenge (Handicap), preference being for the former, who will have the services of jockey Ryan Moore for the first time since the pair won a handicap on this course over two years ago when in the care of Harry & Roger Charlton before joining William Mott in the US and now Michael Bell.
At a current best price of 7/2, the Kingman gelding has been well found in the market, in which case I think an each-way interest in Charlie Johnston’s filly ARISAIG (Each-Way) could pay dividends, providing the daughter of Harry Angel has more luck than has been the case so far this season.
Callum Shepherd’s mount found herself trapped on the rails with nowhere to go inside the last couple of furlongs in a Goodwood Listed race two months ago, the winner of that race, Crimson Advocate, going on to win the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at the royal meeting.
From stall 5 in a race dominated by those horses drawn high, Arisaig could never make an impact in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on her most recent start, but would have a big chance of taking this valuable contest granted a better rub of the green on this occasion.
Recommendation: Arisaig (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:40pm Haydock - No Bet
A disappointing turnout of only four runners for this Group 2 Lancashire Oaks. Impressive course and distance winner Estrange would welcome some rain at the Merseyside racecourse, and while clearly the best horse in the race, I would be wary of taking a very short price about David O’Meara’s on ground faster than genuine good. In which case, no bet is advised.
3:00pm Sandown - Cajole (Each-Way)
Juddmonte’s Blue Bolt has been installed a best price 15/8 for this Coral Distaff (Listed Race) following a couple of easy victories in novice company at Windsor and Newbury. It is easy to pick holes in both of those wins however with main market rivals Satavia (Windsor) and Consecrated (Newbury) running no sort of races.
At the 6/1 available with Coral and BetVictor, the John & Thady Gosden filly CAJOLE (Each-Way) is of much more interest. Jockey Ryan Moore has been booked to partner the daughter of Dubawi for the first time, the Cheveley park-owned filly last seen beating all bar winner Never Let Go in the 25-runner Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That was just the fourth career start for the well-bred Cajole (dam a Group 1 winner), who has plenty of improvement to come and can more than hold her own against several higher rated rivals.
Recommendation: Cajole (Each-Way) - 6/1 with BetVictor (3 places)
3:15pm Haydock - Sportingsilvermine (Each-Way)
Not the classiest of Old Newton Cups, but certainly a competitive renewal in which many of the 16 contenders can be fancied to come out on top. With most bookmakers going 5 places (6 in one or two places), the vote goes to James Owen’s bottom weight SPORTINGSILVERMINE (Each-Way).
After winning races at Southwell and Musselburgh on his first two starts for connections since leaving the Irish stable of Denis Hogan earlier in the year, the Holy Roman Emperor gelding possibly failed to stay Newmarket’s 1m 6f next time before finishing just a respectable third on his most recent start at Lingfield last month.
With just 7st 11lb to shoulder in this £150k Class 2 contest (including the 5lb claim of talented apprentice Warren Fentiman), I think Sportingsilvermaine is more than capable of making the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Sportingsilvermine (Each-Way) - 16/1 with William Hill (5 places)
3:35pm Sandown - Ruling Court (w/o Ombudsman & Sosie)
Only six runners for this £1 million Coral-Eclipse but a fascinating race all the same. Impressive Royal Ascot Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner Ombudsman heads the betting, and rightly so, followed by Andre Fabre’s French challenger Sosie, fourth behind Bluestocking in last year’s Arc and unbeaten on both starts this season at Longchamp.
In what is sure to be a tactical affair, possibly with Ryan Moore attempting to dictate matters from the front aboard Derby disappointment Delacroix, I like the chances of Godolphin’s second-string RULING COURT in the market without the two principles.
Almost certainly a fortunate winner of the Betfred 2000 Guineas, a race which Field Of Gold should really have won, the son of Justify could only finish third behind the Gosden colt in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot last month.
However, I felt that Oisin Murphy’s mount ran well in the circumstances after sweating profusely before the start and then not getting the rub of the green when outpaced at a crucial stage of the race. Charlie Appleby’s charge is better than that and fancied to see off the challengers from across the Irish Sea.
Recommendation: Ruling Court (w/o Ombudsman & Sosie) - 10/3 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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