There is significant rain forecast for Chepstow on Tuesday afternoon, and overnight and conditions are likely to be no better than good to soft on both tracks for this afternoon’s cracking eight-race card.
Gleno is well treated in the opening conditional jockeys chase, and Gary Moore did have a winner at Plumpton on Monday to end a disappointing run of form for the yard. The more rain, the better.
Mr Katanga was an impressive winner here back in February in first-time cheekpieces, but he is 13lbs higher in the weights, and he showed very little on his reappearance just ten days ago. Point winner My Bad Lucy is a fascinating contender, and a market move would be worth noting.
Had you told me two years ago that FASTINOVICK would now be rated 107 over fences, I would have laughed out loud, but that is his current rating, and he gets the vote with the Joe Tizzard yard having three winners and a second from four runners on Monday.
The selection is closely matched with Gleno on Lingfield form from two years ago, but the stable were out of form for lengthy periods in the interim period, and I am convinced there are races to be won over fences from this mark. He wouldn’t want the ground to deteriorate too much, but he has run well here in the past, although the additional distance with the rail movements is a slight negative.
I can’t have the two at the top of the market in the 2m 3f+ handicap Datsallrightgino and Dibble Decker so it is a race I feel I must play in.
Calico bumped into one when runner-up at Cheltenham over timber on his reappearance, but he is 4lbs higher as a result. He jumped well – if out to his left – at Hereford on his sole previous start over the larger obstacles and would be market leader if I were pricing the race up.
My two against the field, however, are No Risk Des Flos at 7/1 and TRIPLE TRADE, with a preference for the latter who has been backed from 13/2 into 11/2 at the time of writing. Olly Murphy has his string in good form with Brewinupastorm a strong fancy at Aintree on Saturday. I have taken the 11/4 available on Monday evening.
Both No Risk Des Flos’ hurdle wins last season were gained on good ground, but the rain is not a concern, he has the scope to jump a fence, and he has a good record fresh.
Joe Tizzard has suggested that Triple Trade may get three miles over fences in time, but he tanked his way through the Grade 3 Novice Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on Imperial Cup day over 2m 4f before he gave best from two out. He is an exciting novice chaser in a terrific race in which I wouldn’t put anyone off Calico or No Risk Des Flos.
Whizz Kid begins the season on an attractive mark, and Dr Newland makes the long journey north for the concluding handicap hurdle. His form tailed off towards the end of the season, but he won a couple around the sharp tracks of Catterick and Ludlow, and the money for him at Aintree and Sandown in the spring suggested connections do not think a mark of 126 is beyond him.
The form of the yard remains a concern, however, with the stable’s runners largely out of sorts at the time of writing. They did have a couple of winners last month, but of their last eleven runners only one has finished within 14L of the winner with half of their last six runners failing to finish.
Whizz Kid has been put in at 4/5 which seems short enough and he must give 22lbs to HOLMES ST GEORGES who is a Bumper winner at the track and drops back to the minimum trip having been campaigned over further – jumped right – in two starts at Perth. He is suggested as an each-way alternative to the odds-on favourite.
Cash was, arguably, unlucky not to be Irish Derby winner Westover in the Sandown Classic Trial when last seen back in the spring, and he is the star attraction at Colwick Park, where conditions were described as heavy on Tuesday morning. His ability to handle the ground is a concern, and the feature listed Ben Marshall Stakes is best watched.
Main Fact is entitled to come on for his reappearance here twelve days ago when the betting and the ride given to the horse suggested there would be other days. It could be today, but preference is for CLARITUDO who didn’t get the best of runs at Redcar last time and looks ready for a return to two miles.
It has been a good week already for the Eustace family with David saddling the winner of the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, and the selection is trained in Newmarket by David’s brother Harry. He ran poorly on his sole previous start over two miles, but that was on polytrack, and soft ground clearly suits. He gets the each-way vote.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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