Southampton have emerged as the favourites to achieve promotion to the Premier League via the Championship play-offs, edging past Leeds after contrasting ends to the season.
Russell Martin’s side are 13/8 favourites to emerge triumphant at Wembley on Sunday 26 May, having beaten third-placed Leeds on the final day of the season to go into the play-offs with the slight edge.
They must first get past West Brom in the play-off semi-finals, starting on Sunday 12 May, before facing either Leeds or Norwich in the Wembley showpiece.
Leeds had been strong favourites to go up automatically but a drastic loss of form towards the end of the season - they lost four of their last six league games - means they have been leapfrogged by Saints and are now generally priced at 6/4 to go up - though you can find them at equal odds to Southampton.
Championship Play-Off Odds
Here is a look at the best odds on the market for each side, with Southampton backed as favourites by the majority of the bookies.
| Team | Best Odds | Brand |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 13/8 | Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Ladbrokes |
| Leeds | 13/8 | bet365 |
| Norwich | 9/2 | William Hill, Betfred |
| West Brom | 5/1 | Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes |
While Leeds are still seen as in with a strong chance considering their third-placed finish and the strength of their squad, Southampton are clearly backed by more bookies to seal a return to the Premier League with Leeds generally priced at 6/4.
Norwich and West Brom are clearly third and fourth in the running having finished sixth and fifth respectively.
Championship Play-Off Fixtures
Here are the four semi final fixtures, with dates and kick off times listed.
| Fixture | Date & Time |
|---|---|
| Norwich vs Leeds - first leg | Sunday 12 May, 12pm |
| West Brom vs Southampton - first leg | Sunday 12 May, 2.15pm |
| Leeds vs Norwich - second leg | Thursday 16 May, 8pm |
| Southampton vs West Brom - second leg | Friday 17 May, 8pm |
| Final | Sunday 26 May, TBD |
Southampton Promotion Odds
None of the sides heading into these play-off matches are exactly in good form, and you’d argue that Southampton are only marginal favourites because of the win at Elland Road on the final day and because Leeds’ form has been that bad.
They are clearly a good side - no side goes unbeaten for 25 games in a season without being a good team - but they have already shown on two occasions this season that when the pressure is on them, they don’t exactly deal with it well.
Russell Martin has done a good job in what could have been difficult circumstances, but his emotions tend to get the better of him on the touchline and in high-pressured environments such as these, will that be a good thing?
They are unbeaten against the other three sides which will give them confidence and in West Brom probably have the team they would want to face first up, but they are by no means runaway favourites.
Leeds Promotion Odds
About six weeks ago it appeared certain that Leeds would go up via the top two, having beaten Leicester 3-1 to help claw back a 17-point deficit from the Foxes and they even went top during the last international break.
Since then however, Leeds have won just two of their eight matches - they haven’t been the only ones to choke with the pressure on - and most alarmingly of all, they look bereft of ideas and confidence.
What was a water-tight defence earlier in 2024 has conceded nine goals in their last three and the exciting attack they once had is barely functioning.
The return of Patrick Bamford and Dan James should help them against Norwich, and Daniel Farke will be hoping the Leeds side who has shown themselves to be the third best side in the league this season will prove more than enough for rivals - though they have failed to beat either West Brom or Southampton this season.
Norwich Promotion Odds
Norwich held off the advances of teams around them to secure the final play-off spot, and had been heading into the final round of games in good form until a minor blip towards the end.
Like Leeds and Southampton, they head into the play-offs down on confidence having lost to Birmingham on the final day and draw at home to Bristol City and Swansea before that, making it three without a win.
They rely heavily on their home form and those two draws may hurt them, especially with their away form being pretty poor all season.
The Canaries will fancy their chances of getting at Leeds in the first of the play-offs, but they are likely to play a style of football that should suit the Peacocks and with two defeats to them already this season, are clearly up against it.
West Brom Promotion Odds
Last but by no means least, we have West Brom as the outsiders for promotion via the play-offs.
Carlos Corberan has turned them into a function, rather than thrilling, Championship side but they have been in the top six pretty much all season and deserve their place there despite threatening to be hauled in by the chasing pack.
Again, they are another side who tailed off significantly in the final weeks with just two wins in their last eight - they lost three on the bounce to Sunderland, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday before beating Preston on the final day - which means no one will be full of confidence heading into these fixtures.
What counts against them is their two losses this season against Southampton. They are unbeaten against Leeds and won one, lost one against Norwich so if they can get past Saints in their semi-final, they will fancy their chances at Wembley in a one-off fixture.
More Football Betting Offers
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/xlmedia/4d3bea29-4aec-4561-86c3-7911c1bd849b.png)
