Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup Stat Pack
The Cheltenham November meeting is the first really big meeting of the new national hunt season, and headlining the action is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, which this year takes place on Saturday, November 16.
Held in high regard by many, it’s seen to be one of the top early season handicaps and often a tough puzzle to solve for punters.
However, when looking back over the years, there’s plenty of stats and trends that can be used to help people trying to find the winner.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Stats to Follow
There are some great stats around this meeting, which can definitely help work out which horses are more likely to win this race.
To begin, let’s split this up and look at the age of the winners, plus their rating and weight carried.
First of all, nine out of the last 12 winners have been aged between 7 and 9 years old. This seems to be the sweet spot for finding the winner.
Secondly, in terms of weight and rating, 10 of the last 12 winners have been rated 139 or higher, and eight of the last 12 have carried 11st or less in weight.
So from this, we can see that horses do need to be rated highly, but not too highly, meaning they are carrying a big weight of over 11st.
Next up, let’s look at the profile of a winner, both in terms of course form and when they last ran.
Eight of the last 12 winners had run within 35 days, so most had a prep run, rather than coming here for their first run of the season.
11 of the last 12 winners had ran at least twice previously at Cheltenham, and eight of the last 12 winners have at least one course win under their belts.
Course form is very important at Cheltenham overall, and it appears it’s even more important when looking at this race.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends to Avoid
Alongside having some stats to follow for the race, we’ve also got a couple of trends that are worth noting, and trying to avoid.
The first of those is that this is not a race where favourites do well. Just one of the last 12 winners was sent off as favourite, this is a big field, competitive handicap with many runners that have chances, and favourites do not do well in it.
Secondly, just one of the last 12 winners came here on the back of winning their previous run. Horses don’t need to come here on the back of a win, in fact, if they do, it can be seen as a disadvantage.
Often we see horses coming here on the back of a win and being supported in the market because of that, but market support that makes them favourite, plus winning their most recent race, are two trends that you should be avoiding when looking at the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
