Supporters of both Southampton and West Bromwich Albion will believe their club belongs in the Premier League, but only one can keep alive their hopes of promotion, with a place at Wembley up for grabs.
Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion match preview
Fair to say, Sunday’s first leg at the Hawthorns was not a thriller, but that simply sets up this tie perfectly, as it’s winner takes all by the South Coast.
At the weekend, these two played out a very uneventful goalless draw in the Black Country, with both teams more concerned about losing than adventurously aiming to claim an advantage.
The vast majority of the action came in a 30 second window towards the end; Grady Diangana was denied by Alex McCarthy, before the visitors went straight up the other end and Ross Stewart’s deflected curler was acrobatically kept out by Alex Palmer.
Nevertheless, as the pair reconvene 128 miles south for this Friday night extravaganza, it’s winner heads to Wembley.
After 46 fixtures, Southampton finished 12 points higher in the table, earning them home advantage in this second leg, whilst also making them favourites to advance.
The Saints were relegated from the top-flight for the third time last season, seeking to bounce straight back for the first time, taking four seasons to return to the first division in ‘70s, before enduring seven years outside the Premier League prior to their most-recent promotion in 2012.
This season, following a 22-match unbeaten run between September and February, Russell Martin’s team had ambitions of gatecrashing the top two, only for three successive defeats to thwart those dreams.
This is, surprisingly, just the second time Southampton have ever featured in the EFL play-offs, dumped out by Derby on penalties back in 2007, before the Rams beat a certain West Bromwich Albion in the final.
Fast forward 17 years, will the Saints be marching back to Wembley on 26 May?
As for West Bromwich Albion, in comparison, they are seasoned play-off veterans, with this the club’s fifth post-season campaign.
The Baggies won promotion to the Championship via this route in 1993, but have never triumphed at this level, defeated in semis by Bolton in 2001 and Aston Villa on penalties in 2019 while, as mentioned, losing out in the 2007 final to Derby.
This season, as the Albion seek to end their three-year stay in the second-tier, they too lost three successive matches in April, thereby needing their 3-0 win over Preston on the final day to rubber stamp fifth.
Having only managed to earn a draw at home, the odds are stacked against Carlos Corberán’s team, so can West Brom book their place at Wembley, or will Southampton make home advantage count at St Mary’s?
Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion Tips
We are backing Southampton to win here, as they did when West Bromwich Albion last visited St Mary’s on Remembrance Day, prevailing 2-1 back then.
Overall, the Saints have won seven of their last nine encounters with the Baggies, including each of the last three, and 11 of the last 16 played by the South Coast.
West Brom have only claimed two victories in 27 visits to either the The Dell or St Mary’s, dating back to 1969, both coming in the Premier League, a 3-0 thumping in 2013, a match that produced three red cards, and a 2-1 victory on New Year’s Eve 2016.
This season, possibly more pertinently, Russell Martin’s team have won 17 of 25 home games, including 15 of the last 19, while Carlos Corberán’s side have won only six of 24 away, their sole road victories since the start of December coming at Rotherham, Plymouth and Huddersfield, all of whom finished in the bottom four.
In terms of both teams to score NO, this has been the case in seven of the last ten clashes between these two at St Mary’s, as well as 14 of their 18 most-recent encounters, irrespective of venue.
Sticking with the theme set in the cagy first leg, we’re forecasting another low-scoring, nervy night.
Adam Armstrong scored 21 times in the EFL Championship this season, a tally only Sammie Szmodics can better, with 12 of his goals coming in home matches.
One of these was the late winner when the Saints beat the Baggies 2-1 in November, so we’re forecasting that Armstrong will repeat this feat.
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