Football Tips

Sutton’s Acca: 16/1 EFL Bet For Saturday 11th February

EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his accumulator for Saturday’s action across the three leagues – he sees fantastic value in one Evens shot in League Two

Burnley to beat Preston North End – 1/2

Points per game projections suggest 77 points will be enough for Burnley to secure automatic promotion, in which case, Vincent Kompany’s side would need a mere 12 points from their remaining 17 encounters to finish the job.

For context, the Clarets have taken 44 points from their previous 17, and are on a nine-game winning streak in the league: one more and they’ll have the longest in the Championship since Aston Villa in 2018-19.

The East Lancashire outfit can create chances in different ways: they can play through the press, they can pass teams off the park or, as they did in a 3-0 victory at Norwich last time out, pounce ruthlessly on opposition errors.

North End can ill-afford those against the leaders, having scored just 27 goals all season: the same number as bottom side Wigan.

Sheffield United to beat Swansea – 5/6

Sheffield United’s gap in the automatic promotion race was cut from 14 points after late January’s 1-0 win over Hull, to 10 points following last week’s draw at Rotherham, but it’s still a comfortable position for Paul Heckingbottom’s side.

PPG projections say that 77 points will be enough for automatic promotion for the Blades, in which case they need only 19 points from their remaining 17 games.

The Red and White Wizards are hoping for three of them, this time, after being unable to capitalize on a dominant second half last time out.

United seem to be able to sustain intense pressure for large swathes of their games, because the back-three of Anel Ahmedhodzic, John Egan and Jack Robinson spread themselves so wide.

It’s very difficult for opponents to get out of their defensive third by clearing the ball, but if they misplace a pass through trying to play their way out, Oli Norwood is so often ready to sweep up in midfield.

Being the Championship’s most enthusiastic keep-ball connoisseurs, averaging 60.9% possession this season, Swansea will certainly try to play their way out but the work rate of Oli McBurnie and Illiman Ndiaye could make life difficult for them.

Barnsley to beat Cambridge – 1/2

Cambridge’s chances of staying in League One look more hopeful than previously, even if their league form now reads one win in 12.

Mark Bonner has solidified his side with the acquisitions of experienced defenders Ryan Bennett and Michael Morrison, Conor McGrandles in midfield and the recall of Liam Bennett, who enjoyed a successful loan at Walsall, while influential goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov is now back from injury.

Since then, the U’s have accrued a respectable point and clean sheet at Lincoln, before drawing 1-1 with Ipswich with an encouraging, competitive display.

However, even an improving relegation struggler will struggle to take points at Oakwell, where Barnsley have accrued 22 points from a possible 27 against bottom half opposition.

Reds boss Michael Duff has established a largely consistent first XI, as such partnerships and relationships are being forged all across the field.

The left-sided combination between ball-playing defender Liam Kitching, crossing specialist wing-back Nicky Cadden and midfield technician Herbie Kane has been a strength long in situ for Tarn, but forward-thinking midfielder Adam Phillips and athletic wing-back Jordan Williams have worked especially well in tandem since last month’s 3-1 win over Accrington Stanley.

Bobby Thomas, Mads Andersen and Kitching in defence have established their own understanding, likewise Phillips, Kane and Luca Connell in midfield – the latter will captain Ireland at a World Cup one day.

All 11 of Cambridge’s subsequent games come against teams below ninth, and it’s that run towards mid-April that will define the survival chances for Mark Bonner’s side, who might struggle to match the quality of their hosts.

Northampton to win at Rochdale – Evens

Assuming Gillingham’s surge out of trouble continues at the current rate, bottom of the table Rochdale will need 45 points to retain their EFL status.

That would require the Dale picking up another 25 points from their remaining 17 games, which feels like a huge ask, when it feels hard to see where even three are coming from.

Jim Bentley’s side have lost their last four league games, and while common fan perception that the majority of this squad don’t care that much about the club may or may not be unfair, performances don’t suggest a group fighting for the cause.

Barring Carlisle, perhaps, the manner of defeats have been as concerning as the defeats themselves, and with each passing week it feels increasingly likely that 102 years of Football League history are coming to an end.

Northampton, by contrast, feel they can exit this league in the other direction, although their promotion push has been hindered by a return of two wins in seven.

With Carlisle broadly in form, Stevenage looking relentless and Leyton Orient unlikely to be caught, victory at Spotland is essential for Jon Brady’s side to keep the pace.

The Cobblers will need to be creative in both senses of the word: firstly, the literal sense, after they had difficulty breaking down a resolute Walsall rearguard in a goalless draw last time out, but also the tactical sense.

With Ali Koiki suspended and Akin Odimayo injured along with Aaron McGowan and Harvey Lintott, Teyn will be without as many as four natural full-backs, but that might not be a disaster for this type of fixture – in fact, it might encourage Brady to get more attacking players on the pitch.

Sam Hoskins has played as a wing-back many times for Northampton over the years, and while Mitch Pinnock has settled on a central role in recent times, he was initially signed as a winger.

As such, Brady has the option of bringing those two in as wing-backs, switching from 3-4-1-2 to 3-5-2 and bring Marc Leonard into a three-man midfield with Shaun McWilliams and Jack Sowerby, then adding Ipswich loanee Tete Yengi to the attack.

Brady should be able to find the solutions he need to keep Northampton within reach of the top three, and plunge troubled Rochdale closer to the National League.

Stevenage to beat Bradford – 3/4

Stevenage’s FA Cup heroics at Villa Park last month have boosted the January coffers, with seven new signing joining up.

Left-footed technician Jake Forster-Caskey and mobile forward Daryl Horgan joined before Dean Campbell’s memorable winner in B6, but goalkeeper Jokull Andresson, centre-back Jonathan Tomkinson and left wing-back Josh Reid have since joined on loan from Reading, Norwich and Coventry respectively.

Striker Josh March also arrived with promotion-winning nous from Forest Green, while goalkeeper Taye Ashby-Hammond’s injury has seen Adam Pryzbek join from Walsall.

All these recruits bring their own challenges for Steve Evans, who now has more senior players to satisfy with game-time, but the Scot needs those appealing dilemmas with 19 games in the next 88 days.

For instance, Terence Vancooten missed out at Sutton last time out, but Tomkinson has many of his qualities and came in with minimal fuss, as the team kept a clean sheet and point, when without the Norwich loanee Evans might have had to reshuffle the defence.

With greater means to adapt to circumstance and change games that aren’t going their way, Stevenage have a great chance of taking another stride closer to League One.

Visitors Bradford are winless in four, and are heavily reliant on Andy Cook: behind the 17-goal front-man, Tyreik Wright is City’s 2nd-top scorer with just four and he doesn’t even play for them anymore, Banks (three) is still injured and Oliver (three) didn’t get off the bench last time out.

The Bantams have struggled against the top sides in recent months, having lost to Northampton, Leyton Orient and Carlisle.

Betfair Acca

Burnley to beat Preston North End – 1/2

Sheffield United to beat Swansea – 5/6

Barnsley to beat Cambridge – 3/4

Northampton to win at Rochdale – Evens

Stevenage to beat Bradford – 3/4

£10 bet returns £158.44!

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Sutton's EFL Acca

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Gab Sutton

Gab Sutton

EFL expert Gab Sutton brings you Sutton's Acca every Friday for Freebets