Paddy Brennan's Countdown to Cheltenham - L'Eau du Sud the Arkle Value
Here at Freebets.com, in the run-up to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, we'll sit down each week with six-time Festival-winning jockey Paddy Brennan to get his thoughts on the latest Cheltenham news, exclusive insights, and expert analysis.
We have also got some of the best and latest Cheltenham betting offers on the market ahead of the Festival.
With Sir Gino now set to miss the Cheltenham Festival due to injury, can you see anything getting close to Majborough?
It's a great shame Sir Gino is missing the Arkle on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival, but I think L'Eau du Sud of Dan Skelton's could get very close to Majborough.
At Willie's, they hold Majborough in seriously high regard - I thought he jumped okay at Leopardstown, but he can improve on that in his jumping.
But he's gone, look, he's a warm order - he's very short, that's obvious, but I do think L'Eau du Sud at around 5/1 is excellent value.
Gavin Cromwell has mentioned sending Only By Night to the race instead of the Mares' Chase. Would she be of interest to you if she lined up to receive the allowance?
She probably would.
But if Gavin Cromwell said that, I think she would be better in the Mares' Chase. If she runs in the Arkle, she's looking at a place realistically. Whereas in the Mares Chase, you could think she could win.
Back to Sir Gino - he's not the first well-thought-off horse from the Henderson stable to suffer a setback. Is it just a coincidence, or do you think there's something about the training method? You look at Willie Mullins; his horses seem more battle-hardened.
Nicky's situation with Sir Gino is a one-off, and where this horse got the injury is unusual - it's like an infection inside the skin.
No one can predict that, and no one can do anything about it, I don't think.
It's just one of them; over the years, Nicky's had disappointments with horses not making the Festival, but this situation is entirely different.
You've mentioned you're not convinced about the chances of Jonbon in the Champion Chase. Could you give Il Est Francais a chance? He could get let loose on the front line at Kempton and be tricky to reel back in.
I think where my thing with Jonbon is obviously again like Majborough, it's very easy to say, 'Jonbon is going to win and ABC', but I think on this situation in this race with Matata, the horse of Joseph O'Brien's, and Il Est Francais, they'll just put him in a difficult position where he's not able just to be comfortable with upsides on the outside.
He likes to dictate things - he likes to be in a striking position from the moment he jumps off.
In this race, he might find himself 10 lengths off the lead, which will be a different ball game.
I'm not saying it won't work, and I'm sure he's got a massive chance, but things in this race could make things difficult for him in the early part of the race.
The second half of the race is probably not where I'm coming from here. I'm coming at the very first half of the race.
Just being slow on a fence or two, might not have to get a nudge, things he's not used to doing.
And it's the Betfair Ascot Chase tomorrow. Do you have any strong opinions on that race?
I was pleased that Emmett Mullins declared Corbett's Cross because I thought he was the one. And there was humming and harring whether he was going to run, but he is running.
I rate Corbett's Cross - I think the reason he's running is because of Galopin Des Champ. Because as much as they'd like to go straight to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, I think part of them is thinking we could win this Ascot Chase, and that, to them, is probably a prize they'd like to lift rather than take the chance of waiting for the Gold Cup and not being able to beat Galopin.
That was the decision. The ground tomorrow at Ascot is drying - that could suit, but I'd be looking forward to watching him tomorrow.
I'd say the Venetia Williams-trained L'Homme Presse might be a doubt in that race. I could see that being a non-runner if the ground really dries up, while Pic D'orhy is definitely beatable.
I like Corbet's Cross.
Looking towards the Cheltenham Gold Cup, can you see anything getting close to Galopin Des Champs on current form?
The answer is no. On current form, I think Galopin Des Champs only has to jump around to win the Gold Cup. I don't think we've seen that for many, many years.
I was all about Fact To File at the start of the season but he's had two goes at it - it hasn't worked. I could see him running in the Ryanair Chase.
Obviously, you've got the horse of Joseph O'Brien's that won the King George - Banbridge.
The ground would be massive for him - even if it went anywhere worse than good to soft, he could be an unlikely runner.
You could be looking at six runners in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, you really could.
Are any of Fergal's of interest tomorrow? Greyval has been unlucky recently and steps up in trip, as does Tintintin.
Greyval and Tintintin, I see them as outside each-way chances. They both will like the ground but have a bit to find and these are very competitive handicaps tomorrow.
Finally, the Grand National weights were published this week. Did anything catch your eye for the race?
I like the Paul Nicholls-trained horse - Kandoo Kid, who won the Coral Gold Cup, which used to be the Hennessy.
And I Am Maximus. Yes, he's 8lbs higher, but he's still the very best horse in the race, and he comes out and runs in the Bobby Joe a week tomorrow. I think he'd be very hard to beat in that, and if he wins, he'll be the favourite in the Grand National betting.
He was very impressive last year - I see him as a proper Grade 1 horse, and if you look through it, there aren't many as solid as him in a Grade 1 on a real going day.
Okay, he's had a couple of disappointing runs this season. The first time he was pulled up and then ran a bit better next time at the Dublin Racing Festival. I think we'll see him a lot better in the Bobby Joe.
So, him and Kandoo Kid were the two I liked.
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