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Bet365′s odds compilers have been on a bender. How else can you explain their quote of 6/5 about Sunday’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix having a race-stopping Red Flag incident?
This circuit may be wall-lined and very narrow in places, but the stats show only three of the six races staged at the Baku Street Circuit have needed the intervention of a Safety Car. A Red Flag has never been waved at this venue in the past. And while it got plenty of use in the Australian Grand Prix, it is fair to say, overall, Red Flags are as rare as teetotallers at AA meetings.
There was no Red Flag in any Formula 1 race during the 2018 or 2019 seasons. Three were needed in 2020, five in 2021, and last season, only three. Historically, only one race in 10 has been red-flagged during the past decade. Therein, we declare the 4/6 available about NO Red Flag on Sunday, is a gift from the betting gods.
Three Leaders One Winner?
Elsewhere, bet365 has entered the generosity stakes with its 4/6 quote about Sunday’s race having three or more leaders. A safety car appearance will help this one home, but it is a really strong fancy come what may.
Of course, Max Verstappen is the heavy favorite for Sunday’s race and the 100-kilometer F1 Sprint contest on Saturday. Incidentally, this season, the F1 Sprint contests do not serve to provide the starting grid for the big race. They have their own, albeit shortened, qualifying session.
4/11 is ridiculously short about Verstappen regardless of the superiority of his car. In 2021 he had the race at his mercy only to suffer a tyre failure. Six races here have produced just two winning favourites. Our suggestion is to lay the Dutchman on the betting exchanges, especially for the Sprint Race where a single safety car could ruin anyone’s chances.
Williams at the Double
For an absolute screamer, how about the 10/1 about both Williams cars finishing in the points (or the top 10)? They will probably not do so on merit, but they deservedly finished 10th and 12th in the season-opening race in Bahrain. In Australia, Alex Albon qualified his Williams in eighth position, and he was arguably unlucky to not finish the race in the points.
Vitally, the attrition rate is high in Baku. Just 14 cars were classified as finishers in 2017 and 2018. 2019 and 2022 claimed four casualties apiece. Naturally, one or both of the Williams could fall victim to an incident on Sunday. But, if they are not and four or five cars fall by the wayside, a double-point finish is entirely possible. The proposition is certainly over-priced at 10/1.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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