Betting Tips

An Outsider To Run Well In The Derby: Knight To Behold Overpriced For Saturday’s Derby

Backing any horse at 8-11 to win the Epsom Derby who is unproven over the mile and a half trip and the unique undulations of the course which have undone many high-class contenders over the years takes plenty of nerves, and while Saxon Warrior deserves his position as hot favourite for Saturday’s Classic the son of Deep Impact hardly represents anything in the way of value.

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Should the unbeaten colt make it Derby number seven for Ballydoyle and trainer Aidan O’Brien at the weekend the triple crown ( 2000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger ) would look a distinct possibility this season but at current odds the mount of Ryan Moore has to be taken on with a better value alternative and at the 18-1 available with bet365 ( ¼ odds a place ) the Harry Dunlop-trained Knight To Behold makes most appeal.

Back in 1974 Snow Knight ran out a shock winner for trainer Peter Nelson and jockey Brian Taylor and 44 years later history can repeat itself with the son of Sea The Stars who ticks plenty of boxes having already proved his stamina over the mile and a half trip and on a similar course to Epsom with an impressive victory in Lingfield’s Betfred Derby Trial Stakes on his most recent start.

Taking the lead with a mile to run at the Surrey track the lightly-raced colt gradually increased the tempo to go seven lengths clear with three furlongs to run, from which point Aidan O’Brien’s 8-11 favourite Kew Gardens was always fighting a losing battle. Jockey Richard Kingscote showed once again that there is no better judge of pace than Tom Dascombe’s retained rider and if similar tactics are deployed at Epsom the combination may take some pegging back with Knight To Behold’s stamina not an issue.

Ballydoyle are sure to deploy one or two pacemakers of their own but on this occasion those tactics may prove a disadvantage for the powerful stable, leaving the favourite with plenty of ground to make up at the business end of the race.